A curious divergence is unfolding in Cantaloupe Inc.’s stock, creating a tense environment for investors. Despite the pending acquisition of the payment services provider by 365 Retail Markets, bearish sentiment has surged dramatically. Data from July reveals a startling 41.8% jump in short interest, indicating a significant number of traders are betting against the stock even with a firm buyout offer on the table. This sets the stage for a high-stakes waiting game.
Institutional Holdings Versus Short Sellers
The investor landscape presents a clear conflict. On one side, major institutions like the State of Wyoming increased their holdings during the second quarter. Collectively, institutional investors control more than 75% of the company’s shares. Arrayed against them are short sellers, who have established a substantial position of 3.87 million shares, equating to 5.7% of the float. This bet implies a belief that the share price could drop below the all-cash acquisition bid of $11.20 per share, a notable wager given the current trading range sits just under that threshold.
Market Experts Maintain a Cautious Stance
The view from analysts has grown increasingly reserved. Several market researchers have recently downgraded their assessments, resulting in a consensus rating that now averages a “Hold.” While the average price target of $12.24 remains technically above the takeover price, a palpable sense of doubt persists. The central uncertainty troubling the market is whether short sellers possess insight into risks that have not yet been fully accounted for in the current valuation.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Cantaloupe?
The Acquisition Timeline and Market Reality
The entire situation hinges on the proposed transaction with 365 Retail Markets. The fixed-price deal is expected to be finalized in the second half of 2025. In theory, this should cause the equity to trade very close to the offer price. However, the market’s behavior tells a different story. With shares currently trading at $10.87, it appears investors are either skeptical about the deal’s successful completion or see an opportunity for further speculation before the closing date.
The coming weeks will determine whether short sellers are proven correct in their pessimistic outlook or if the deal proceeds, turning their bet sour. The outcome will reveal if the market’s current skepticism was warranted.
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