Financial services firm Susquehanna has revised its outlook on Saia, elevating the stock from a “Neutral” to a “Positive” rating. In a significant move, the analyst also raised the price target from $340 to $360 per share, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 15% from current trading levels.
Strong Operational Metrics Defy Sector Challenges
The upgraded assessment follows the release of Saia’s operational data for July and August 2025, which revealed underlying strength despite a complex market environment. The figures for July showed a nuanced picture: while the number of less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments per workday declined by 1.2% year-over-year, the tonnage per workday actually increased by 0.9%. This was driven by a 2.1% rise in the average weight per shipment, which reached 1,359 pounds.
August metrics indicated a slight softening, with both shipments and tonnage per workday declining by 2.2% each. The average shipment weight remained virtually unchanged, posting a marginal gain of just 0.1%.
Outperformance Against Expectations and Peers
A key point highlighted by analysts is that Saia’s total tonnage decline of 0.7% for the third quarter significantly outperformed the estimated decrease of 1.2%. This robust performance also placed the company ahead of direct competitors, including Old Dominion Freight Line and XPO, in terms of tonnage development.
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Recent quarterly earnings further cement this positive operational narrative. For Q2 2025, Saia reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.67, substantially surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.39. Revenue saw a slight dip of 0.7% to $817.12 million, narrowly missing analyst projections.
Institutional Investors Amplify Their Stakes
The bullish sentiment is finding resonance within the institutional investment community. United Services Automobile Association (USAA) notably expanded its position in the first quarter by acquiring an additional 1,721 shares, a transaction valued at roughly $618,000. This vote of confidence is echoed by other major firms; both JPMorgan and Wells Fargo have recently issued upward revisions to their own price targets for Saia.
- Rating Revision: Susquehanna upgrades to “Positive,” sets $360 price target
- Operational Resilience: Q3 tonnage decline of -0.7% beats estimates and outpaces rivals
- Earnings Beat: Q2 EPS of $2.67 exceeds consensus forecasts
- Growing Institutional Interest: USAA and other major funds increase holdings
- Variable Performance: Shares are up 18% over three months but down 30% year-to-date
The stock’s performance reveals a contrasting narrative across different time horizons. It has gained 18% over the past three months, yet it shows a decline of 30% since the start of the year and is down 24% on an annual basis.
Current valuation models indicate the equity is trading at a discount, approximately 7.6% below its estimated fair value. Looking ahead, the ongoing expansion of its national terminal network and increased network density are anticipated to drive future cost efficiencies and support higher shipment volumes.
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