Alarm shares are currently testing a crucial technical threshold, trading perilously close to their lowest point in fifty-two weeks. During Thursday’s session, the security dipped to $48.10, bringing it within striking distance of the critical $48.23 support level that market technicians have been monitoring.
Substantial Year-to-Date Losses
The security has registered disappointing performance metrics throughout 2025, with its value diminishing by 19.29% since January. When examining the trailing twelve-month period, the decline amounts to 12.54%, confirming the persistent downward trajectory that has characterized recent trading activity.
Quarterly Results Loom as Potential Catalyst
All attention now turns to the company’s upcoming earnings release scheduled for after market close on Thursday. Alarm will disclose its third-quarter 2025 financial performance, with market participants divided on expectations:
- Revenue projections: Analysts anticipate $251.14 million, representing year-over-year growth of 4.43%
- Earnings per share: Forecasts suggest $0.592 per share, which would constitute an 11.58% decrease compared to the same quarter last year
The fundamental question remains whether the company can deliver results that surpass these modest expectations.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Alarm?
Contrasting Analyst Perspective
Despite the concerning price action, Raymond James maintains a decidedly bullish stance on the security. The research firm recently reaffirmed its “Strong Buy” recommendation alongside an $80 price target. This optimistic outlook stems from Alarm’s surprisingly robust second-quarter performance:
- EPS achievement: $0.60 per share, exceeding the $0.51 consensus estimate
- Revenue performance: $254.3 million, surpassing the $244.17 million projection
- Growth metrics: Revenue expanded by 9% compared to the previous year
According to InvestingPro metrics, Alarm continues to demonstrate “GOOD” financial health characterized by excess cash reserves and anticipated profitability. Fair value assessments suggest the security may currently be trading below its intrinsic worth.
Nevertheless, whether these positive fundamentals can reverse the established downtrend remains uncertain. The smart security sector continues to represent intensely competitive market terrain. Thursday’s earnings release will prove decisive in determining whether Alarm can initiate a recovery or remains constrained within its current negative pattern.
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