Can Origin Materials Stock Recover From Its Steep Decline?

While Origin Materials shares are showing marginal gains in today’s trading session, this minor uptick masks a concerning downward trajectory. The stock has been in a pronounced decline since the release of its quarterly earnings, plummeting more than 17% across just ten trading days. On a monthly basis, the erosion is even more severe, with over one-third of the equity’s value wiped out. Compounding these challenges is a pending class-action lawsuit that is moving toward a proposed $9 million settlement.

Legal Resolution and Commercial Milestones Provide Contrast

Amid the stock’s struggles, the company is taking concrete steps on two distinct fronts. The $9 million settlement for the class action aims to resolve legal uncertainties, with the important note that Origin Materials admits no wrongdoing as part of the agreement. Simultaneously, the company is announcing tangible commercial progress. Berlin Packaging has placed its first commercial order for PET closures, and August 2025 marked the launch of Power Hydration, the first brand to utilize fully recyclable bottles and closures from Origin Materials.

Q3 2025 Performance: Progress Amidst Revenue Shortfalls

Origin Materials delivered a mixed financial performance for the third quarter of 2025. While the company showed improvement in certain profitability metrics, it fell dramatically short on revenue generation. The adjusted EBITDA showed a loss of $11.6 million, and net income improved by 55.4% to a loss of $16.38 million. However, revenue collapsed from $8.2 million to just $4.7 million—a figure far below the $29.1 million that analysts had projected. Earnings per share of -$0.11 also missed expectations, which stood at -$0.07.

The critical question remains whether a new $15 million draw from a convertible credit facility exceeding $90 million can catalyze a turnaround. Management maintains unwavering confidence in its revenue targets: $20-30 million for 2026 and $100-200 million for 2027, with break-even on an adjusted EBITDA basis also projected for 2027.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Origin Materials?

Technical Breakdown and Divided Analyst Outlook

From a technical perspective, the stock chart paints a bearish picture. On November 20, Origin Materials shares breached their 200-day moving average at $0.58, closing at $0.4601—a development widely interpreted as a negative signal for the near term.

Market experts display sharply divided opinions on the stock’s prospects. Some strategists have issued sell recommendations with price targets around $1.50, while a contrasting majority of 83% of analysts rate the shares as a buy. The average price target among these optimistic voices sits at $2.04.

The pivotal challenge for Origin Materials is whether it can achieve commercial success in the $65 billion closures market before its cash-burning operations become unsustainable. The upcoming quarterly report in February 2026 is expected to provide crucial direction for the company’s trajectory.