Shares of gold producer Newmont Corporation opened the trading week with notable strength, currently advancing by approximately 1.38 percent to $101.25. This upward momentum is fueled by a confluence of a resilient gold price and, more significantly, substantial capital inflows from major institutional investors. The moves prompt a key question: are these large-scale positions a bet on a sustained rally?
Macroeconomic Backdrop and Valuation Appeal
The current market environment appears favorable for the mining operator. Spot gold is trading at $4,421.45 per ounce, a level that continues to provide producers with robust margins. Sustained central bank purchasing activity and ongoing geopolitical tensions are underpinning this strong pricing.
A compelling aspect of the investment thesis is the sector’s valuation discount. While many sectors within the S&P 500, particularly technology stocks, trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 29, major gold miners like Newmont average a P/E of approximately 13. This gap persists despite the company generating a substantial $1.6 billion in free cash flow in the third quarter alone.
Strategic Moves by Major Funds
Recent portfolio adjustment disclosures reveal a pronounced shift in sentiment toward Newmont. In a significant show of long-term confidence, Norges Bank, Norway’s central bank, has established a major new position valued at roughly $919 million.
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Concurrently, investment management firm Invesco has aggressively expanded its stake. The firm increased its holding by 45 percent to about 15.6 million shares, representing a current market value exceeding $908 million. These strategic accumulations coincide with a period of operational outperformance by the company. For Q3 2025, Newmont reported earnings per share of $1.71, decisively surpassing analyst estimates of $1.27.
Technical and Analytical Perspectives
From a chart analysis standpoint, the upward trend remains firmly intact. The current share price holds comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 38, indicating the stock is not in overbought territory despite recent gains. Near-term resistance is viewed around the $103.16 level.
Market analysts are responding positively to these developments. Raymond James has reaffirmed its “Outperform” rating, issuing a price target of $111 and emphasizing the firm’s cash-flow generation capabilities. Quantitative models also suggest a fair value near $104.53, implying potential for further appreciation even after a 165 percent surge over the past twelve months.
Forward Look: Key Dates and Catalysts
The upcoming earnings report on February 19, 2026, is poised to be a critical catalyst for the stock’s direction. Investors will scrutinize Newmont’s fourth-quarter results, paying close attention to how management deploys its record cash flows and whether key projects, such as the “Tanami Expansion 2,” remain on schedule.
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