The quantum computing sector is in focus this week following a significant analyst initiation. Rosenblatt Securities commenced coverage on Rigetti Computing with a bullish “Buy” recommendation, setting a price target of $40 per share. This projection suggests a potential upside of more than 56% from Friday’s closing price of $25.59.
Technical Hurdles and Revised Timelines
Despite the optimistic outlook from analysts, Rigetti confirmed a delay in its product roadmap. The general availability of its 108-qubit system, named Cepheus-1-108Q, has been pushed back. Initially planned for an earlier release, the system is now slated for market readiness by the end of the first quarter of 2026. The company attributed the shift to its pursuit of higher technical precision. While the current 2-qubit fidelity stands at 99%, Rigetti is targeting 99.5%. For context, the firm’s smaller 9-qubit systems already achieve a 99.7% fidelity rate. This metric is critical for computational reliability and is a key competitive factor against rivals like IonQ, which utilizes a different trapped-ion technology.
Sector-Wide Momentum and Financial Contrasts
The positive sentiment from analysts had already begun influencing the market last Friday. Rigetti’s shares advanced by 3.6%, while its competitors also saw gains. IonQ jumped 6.8%, and Quantum Computing Inc. rose 4.3%. This sector-wide movement occurred ahead of the Monday U.S. market holiday, with investors looking toward Tuesday’s trading session.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rigetti?
Over a longer horizon, Rigetti’s stock performance has been remarkable, posting gains between 135% and 151% over the past twelve months. This significantly outpaces IonQ’s 83% increase over the same period. However, a stark contrast emerges in the companies’ financial fundamentals, highlighting Rigetti’s earlier developmental stage. Its revenue for the last twelve months totaled just $7 million, representing a 43% decline over three years. In comparison, IonQ reported $80 million in revenue, fueled by a growth rate of 493%.
Analyst Sentiment and Future Catalysts
Rosenblatt’s bullish stance aligns with other positive assessments in the market. Mizuho Securities recently reaffirmed its favorable view on the quantum computing specialist. The coming quarters will be pivotal for Rigetti. Market watchers will closely monitor progress on the Cepheus system and the company’s first-quarter financial results to determine if it can initiate a reversal in its revenue trend.
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