Coinbase, the leading U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, ended its streak of eight profitable quarters by moving back into the red in Q4 2025. The quarterly results were marred by hefty non-operating charges and a weak retail business, and they fell well short of Wall Street expectations. Investors now wonder whether the setback is temporary or indicative of a deeper, structural shift.
- Net loss for Q4 2025: $667 million
- Revenue: $1.78 billion, vs. consensus around $1.83 billion
- Year-over-year revenue: down about 20%
A primary drag on the quarter came from non-operating items. Coinbase booked a $718 million impairment on its crypto portfolio, complemented by a $395 million loss tied to strategic equity stakes. On the operating front, transaction revenue dipped to $982.7 million, missing the $1.0 billion mark. The retail (private customer) segment also deteriorated, falling by more than 45%, reflecting broad investor caution. The lone bright spot was the Subscription and Services segment, which climbed to $727.4 million thanks to record stablecoin revenues.
Wall Street trims targets
In response to the results, several banks and research houses trimmed their price targets:
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Coinbase?
- JPMorgan lowered its target from $399 to $290
- Citigroup cut its projection from $505 to $400
- Cantor Fitzgerald reduced its target to $221
- Monness, Crespi, Hardt lowered its fair value estimate to $120
Balance sheet remains solid despite headwinds
Management highlighted a strong full-year in 2025, noting a 156% surge in trading volume to $5.2 trillion. The balance sheet remains robust, with $11.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Share repurchases totaled about $1.7 billion by early February, even as CEO Brian Armstrong sold stock valued at over $500 million in the prior year.
For the first quarter of 2026, Coinbase guided subscription and services revenue between $550 million and $630 million. The stock swung lower, dropping nearly 8% on the session and is down roughly 40% for the year to date. Looking ahead, the key test will be whether transaction revenues stabilize in Q1, especially in the context of lower Bitcoin prices and ongoing technical setbacks.
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