A confluence of positive developments is converging for Canadian tungsten producer Almonty Industries. With analyst upgrades, surging institutional interest, and its flagship mine now operational, the company faces a pivotal moment. The upcoming quarterly report on March 19 will offer the first concrete financial glimpse into whether these favorable conditions are translating to the bottom line.
Operational Milestone: Sangdong Mine Comes Online
The central pillar of Almonty’s growth story transitioned from development to production in December 2025. The Sangdong mine, located in South Korea’s Gangwon province, commenced commercial operations. The first ore shipment has left the site, and processing plants are running according to schedule. This asset is considered one of the world’s most significant tungsten deposits, with reserves of 7.9 million tonnes. Plans are in place to gradually ramp up its annual capacity to 1.2 million tonnes by 2027.
Beyond Sangdong, the company is advancing other projects. It is working on a capacity expansion at its Panasqueira mine in Portugal and developing the Gertung Browns Lake project in the United States, which could be ready in the second half of 2026.
A Market in Structural Deficit
The bullish sentiment surrounding Almonty is rooted in a fundamental shift in global tungsten supply dynamics. China, which controls an estimated 75-80% of worldwide production, tightened export restrictions at the end of 2025. According to BMO Capital Markets, Chinese exports temporarily ground to a complete halt. This contributed to a staggering 160% surge in the tungsten price during 2025, with upward momentum continuing into 2026.
Further pressure stems from a planned import ban by the U.S. Department of Defense on tungsten originating from China, Russia, and North Korea, slated to take effect January 1, 2027. Western consumers are already compelled to reconfigure their supply chains, positioning Almonty as a critical non-Chinese supplier.
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Wall Street Takes Notice with Significant Target Hikes
This transformed market landscape has prompted a major reassessment by equity researchers. DA Davidson has reinforced its Buy rating on Almonty while lifting its price target from $18 to $25 per share. The revision is based on updated pricing assumptions in their model, with the bank now expecting the weekly Fastmarkets reference price for tungsten to remain sustainably above $2,000 per metric tonne. Analysts describe global mine supply as “extremely limited,” noting a particular divergence in the price of defense-grade powdered tungsten from the base ammonium paratungstate product, partly driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. DA Davidson has raised its long-term price forecasts through approximately 2028.
They are not alone in their optimism. Couloir Capital has also dramatically increased its target within this cycle, moving from C$7.69 to C$19.30—a jump of over 150%. The firm cites persistently high tungsten prices and the Sangdong production ramp-up as key drivers. Almonty’s market capitalization now exceeds $4 billion.
Institutional Capital Flows In
The company’s strategic position is attracting substantial attention from major investors. Institutional ownership saw a dramatic spike in the last quarter. Van Eck Associates increased its stake by 13,295% in Q4, accumulating roughly 11.2 million shares valued at approximately $99 million. New positions were also established by Encompass Capital Advisors and Next Century Growth Investors, worth $25.6 million and $16.3 million, respectively. The total number of invested funds grew by more than 55% to 107.
Almonty fortified its balance sheet through two U.S. capital raises in 2025, grossing over $219 million.
All eyes are now on the March 19 earnings release. This report will be the first to jointly reflect the impact of elevated tungsten prices and the ongoing production ramp-up at Sangdong, providing a measurable indicator of how far the company’s operational transformation has progressed.
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