Rigetti Investors Face a Test of Patience Amid Technical Delays

For shareholders of quantum computing firm Rigetti, the close of fiscal 2025 presented a challenging picture. The company’s latest quarterly results fell short of revenue expectations, while a postponed timeline for its next-generation system adds another layer of uncertainty. The key question now is whether a substantial order backlog can restore market confidence.

Liquidity Strength Contrasts with Operational Losses

A notable positive amidst the quarterly figures is the company’s liquidity position. Rigetti holds approximately $589.8 million in cash and investments, providing what analysts view as a solid financial runway to continue funding its ambitious development plans. This cushion stands in stark contrast to an operating loss of $22.6 million reported for the final quarter.

Revenue Miss and Shrinking Margins Highlight Challenges

The company’s top-line performance underscored its current difficulties. Fourth-quarter revenue declined by 17% year-over-year to $1.9 million, a figure that significantly missed market expectations of $2.3 million. Compounding the issue, Rigetti’s gross margins contracted noticeably, dropping from 44% to 35%, reflecting intensified financial pressure within its competitive niche.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rigetti?

Roadmap Delay Intensifies Scrutiny

Perhaps more consequential than the financials are technical setbacks. The company has announced a delay in the delivery of its 108-qubit “Cepheus-1” system, pushing its launch to the end of the first quarter of 2026. This postponement arrives as competitors like IonQ demonstrate systems with notably higher computational precision. Market observers interpret the delay as indicative of the immense complexity involved in scaling quantum hardware. Rigetti must now convincingly argue that its roadmap—targeting systems with over 1,000 qubits by 2027—remains achievable. The company points to a laboratory prototype that has already achieved impressive computational accuracy as evidence supporting its long-term ambitions.

Analyst Outlook: Cautious Optimism Anchored by Orders

Despite the stock’s decline of nearly 27% year-to-date, analyst sentiment remains cautiously constructive. Mizuho strategists, for instance, have maintained their positive rating on Rigetti shares, though they reduced their price target from $50 to $43. The stock’s closing price of €14.75 on Tuesday suggests it is searching for a base after a significant retreat from its 52-week high above €48.

The focal point for fiscal 2026 will be the conversion of the company’s order book into recognized revenue. A major $8.4 million contract from India, alongside orders for its Novera system, has led experts to project a potential revenue surge to around $20 million for the coming year. The company anticipates recognizing the first half of these revenues as early as the first quarter of 2026.

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