TUI’s Core Business Feels the Impact of Middle East Tensions

The military escalation in the Middle East has delivered a direct operational blow to travel giant TUI. With two cruise ships immobilized, approximately 10,000 passengers affected, and a potential hit to operating profit of up to €47 million, the crisis is testing the company’s resilience. Despite this, management is standing by its full-year guidance—provided one critical condition is met.

A Logistical Challenge and Evacuation Effort

Since the outbreak of hostilities in late February, cruise operations in the Gulf region have effectively ground to a halt. The vessels Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 remain stuck in Abu Dhabi and Doha with some 5,000 guests on board. Closed airspace and the blocked Strait of Hormuz have made regular service impossible.

In response, TUI Cruises has cancelled all departures until at least mid-March. A complex repatriation operation is underway. While guests in the United Arab Emirates have already departed, travelers in Qatar are being transported by bus to Saudi Arabia to board special charter flights. The company, working closely with Emirates, aims to complete all evacuations by Wednesday.

For trips with start dates up to March 8th to the UAE, Oman, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, TUI has offered cancellations. Customers can rebook or cancel free of charge until the same date.

Assessing the Financial Fallout

Analysts at mwb research estimate the revenue loss for March at around €50 million, which would reduce operating profit (EBIT) by approximately €25 million. The financial damage could deepen significantly if the ships are forced to avoid the Suez Canal for their return to Europe. Taking the alternate route around the Cape of Good Hope is estimated to add a further €22 million in costs, potentially pushing the total EBIT impact as high as €47 million.

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Compounding the issue, rising kerosene prices driven by the conflict are also pressuring margins.

In comments to ntv, TUI CEO Sebastian Ebel acknowledged that some travelers are already switching their bookings to the Caribbean. He anticipates a temporary booking slowdown for the Gulf region, noting that “it could take several months for things to return to normal.” Nevertheless, the management team reaffirmed its annual forecast of 7% to 10% EBIT growth for the 2026 financial year. The crucial caveat: the situation in the Middle East must show clear signs of calming by April.

Management Confidence and Share Price Pressure

Amid the turmoil, CEO Ebel sent a notable signal of confidence. On March 3rd, he purchased TUI shares worth nearly €50,000 at a price of €6.99 per share. Market observers typically interpret such insider buying as a sign of management’s belief in the company’s valuation.

The stock currently trades at €7.09, placing it roughly 12.5% below its 200-day moving average of €8.10. Since the start of the year, TUI shares have shed about 20% of their value, with nearly 24% of that decline occurring in the past 30 days alone.

Investors will gain their first concrete look at the impact of cancellations and logistical costs when TUI releases its half-year report on May 13th. This update will be key in assessing whether the company’s full-year guidance remains on solid ground.