Nel ASA’s Pivotal Year: A 2026 Litmus Test for the Hydrogen Pioneer

Norwegian hydrogen technology firm Nel ASA faces a defining period in 2026. The company’s performance this year will serve as a critical validation point, following a 2025 fiscal period characterized by stark contrasts: severe financial losses and significant write-downs were reported alongside record-breaking order intake and major strategic partnerships.

Financial Headwinds Mask Operational Momentum

The company’s full-year 2025 results revealed considerable challenges. Revenue declined by 31 percent to NOK 963 million, down from NOK 1.39 billion the previous year. The fourth quarter alone saw a 20 percent drop in sales. More dramatically, the net loss deepened to NOK 870 million in Q4, a sharp increase from a loss of NOK 64 million in the same period a year earlier. This was primarily driven by non-cash impairment charges totaling NOK 799 million, which included a NOK 439 million write-down on goodwill and intangible technology values within the PEM electrolyser segment.

These impairments signal a strategic pivot away from Nel’s first-generation electrolyser technology, clearing the path for a new platform.

However, the order book tells a markedly different story. In Q4 2025, Nel secured new orders worth NOK 686 million—a staggering 364 percent increase year-over-year and the second-best quarterly order intake in the company’s history. A dominant 93 percent of these orders were for PEM electrolysers. A standout contract was a 40-megawatt PEM order from HYDS for two Norwegian sites, described by Nel as its largest PEM contract by capacity to date. The total order backlog subsequently grew to NOK 1.3 billion, with approximately 70 percent attributed to PEM technology.

A significant strategic development was the entry of Samsung Engineering & Construction as a major investor. Samsung acquired a 9.1 percent stake for about USD 33 million, becoming the largest single shareholder. The partnership also designated Nel as Samsung’s preferred global hydrogen partner.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

Betting on a Next-Generation Platform

Central to Nel’s turnaround strategy is its “Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline” (NGP) electrolyser platform, slated for commercial launch in the first half of 2026. After seven years of development and successful prototype testing, the board has approved the construction of up to 1 GW of manufacturing capacity at Herøya, Norway. The new technology promises to reduce the physical footprint of installations by 80 percent and cut capital expenditure by 40 to 60 percent.

The project has secured substantial backing, with the EU Innovation Fund committing up to EUR 135 million in support, covering about 60 percent of eligible costs. An initial payment exceeding EUR 10 million is contingent upon the final investment decision. The company plans to begin larger-scale deliveries from 2027 onward.

Upcoming Milestones to Watch

Two key dates in April 2026 will provide early indicators of whether the company’s transformation is gaining traction. The Annual General Meeting is scheduled for April 10, followed by the release of first-quarter 2026 results on April 22. Cost-cutting measures are already underway, with the workforce reduced from 430 to 346 full-time positions. The company ended the last quarter with liquidity reserves of NOK 1.617 billion.

The crucial test of whether the NOK 1.3 billion order backlog can be successfully converted into sustained revenue growth will likely come with the half-year report in July. This update stands as the next major benchmark for Nel ASA in a year that promises to be decisive for its future trajectory.