A clear sector rotation is defining trading within Germany’s MDAX index. Companies with pricing power in raw materials and commodities are advancing, while those dependent on stable supply chains, consumer spending, or favorable U.S. market conditions are facing significant pressure. This dynamic, driven by geopolitical unrest and its economic repercussions, has created stark winners and losers among mid-cap stocks.
Delivery Hero Plummets Amid Governance Concerns and Profit Warning
At the bottom of the index, Delivery Hero shares fell 5.5% to €15.74, marking the day’s weakest performance and placing the stock just 5% above its 52-week low. Since the start of the year, the Berlin-based delivery service has lost nearly a third of its value.
The company is confronting a mounting pile of challenges. Major shareholder Aspex Management, which holds approximately 9.2%, has significantly increased pressure on the supervisory board. In a letter, the Hong Kong-based investment firm demanded “comprehensive changes” in management and directly criticized CEO Niklas Östberg, stating the company had made no progress in its strategic business review.
Simultaneously, the Middle Eastern subsidiary Talabat is weighing on prospects. JPMorgan analyst Marcus Diebel referred to the below-consensus outlook as a “profit warning,” citing planned investments. There is a risk that the operating result for 2026 could be lower than the previous year. Despite broad buy recommendations among analysts, market confidence in corporate leadership remains shaken. An RSI below 27 signals an oversold condition, though whether this leads to a rebound is questionable given the unresolved governance issues.
K+S Rides Wave of Fertilizer Demand and Supply Constraints
In contrast, K+S was among the MDAX’s top performers, gaining 4.5%. The Kassel-based company is benefiting from a near-perfect market scenario: rising energy prices and geopolitical disruptions are boosting global fertilizer demand, while sanctions and supply interruptions are constricting supply. China’s restrictions on fertilizer exports are creating a double bottleneck.
Management’s fundamental outlook supports the optimism. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to reach between €600 million and €700 million by 2026. Roughly 70% of the natural gas requirements for its European and Canadian operations are already secured. In the crucial Brazilian market, potash prices began rising at the start of the year.
The share price has advanced approximately 36% since January, trading at €17.15, well above its 200-day moving average. In early April, the price crossed above its 20-day line—a signal confirming the upward trend that began in January. K+S is currently viewed as one of the few clear MDAX beneficiaries of the current geopolitical environment, an effect expected to extend beyond short-term trading.
Wacker Chemie Defies Sector Gloom with Price Increases
Wacker Chemie climbed 2.8% to €84.50, approaching the 12-month high it recently marked. Since the end of March, the stock has rallied over 24%—a notable performance in a sector generally under pressure.
The operational driver is clear: as of April 1, higher prices are in effect for its entire silicone portfolio, which accounts for about half of group sales. Rising oil and gas costs left management little choice. Prices for resins and dispersions used in polymers for the construction and paint industries are also rising.
In parallel, the “PACE” cost-saving program is taking hold. Following a deeply loss-making 2025, burdened by a €600 million impairment on its Siltronic stake, an operational turnaround is targeted for 2026. The goal is gross savings of €200 million this year alone, primarily in administration and production.
The broader industry sends mixed signals. While European chemical stocks have nearly recovered their war-related losses after the Stoxx Europe 600 Chemicals index dropped over eleven percent by mid-March, the Ifo business climate index for the German chemical industry fell from minus 16.7 to minus 25.0 points in March. Wacker’s resilience in this environment underscores the stock’s relative strength. The first real stress test will come with the quarterly report at the end of April.
Aurubis Lifted by Analyst Upgrade and Copper Narrative
The Hamburg-based copper smelter advanced 3.4% to €157.50, a move clearly driven by analyst action. Warburg Research upgraded the stock from “Hold” to “Buy” and raised its price target from €141 to €176. Analyst Stefan Augustin believes the shares can return to the record high of late February, when Aurubis traded at nearly €173. Since then, the stock had lost up to 20%.
Two arguments support this optimistic view:
* Metal Product Business: Augustin sees significant earnings potential in the coming years from rising metal prices and higher processing capacities.
* European Sovereignty: Through its access to strategic resources via recycling, Aurubis fits the politically desired narrative of raw material independence.
Long-term, the company benefits from the energy transition, e-mobility, and digitalization—all copper-intensive megatrends. Whether the share price actually reaches the €176 mark will depend significantly on further copper price developments. With a year-to-date gain of over 24% and a doubling over a twelve-month view, much optimism is already priced in.
Redcare Pharmacy’s Political Tailwind Fades Quickly
A decline of 4.5% to €35.92 continued the downtrend for Redcare Pharmacy. The online pharmacy has lost almost half its market value since the beginning of the year and trades 74% below its 52-week high.
A recent glimmer of hope has now faded. An expert commission presented far-reaching reform proposals for statutory health insurance, including a potential increase in co-payments for prescription drugs. This could have structurally strengthened the business model of online pharmacies, but this impulse dissipated during the trading session.
The core problem runs deeper. In the over-the-counter (OTC) medication business, drugstore giants like dm and Rossmann are aggressively pushing into the digital market. CEO Olaf Heinrich has already slashed the growth forecast for the OTC segment from 16% to 8-10%. The medium-term margin target was reduced from over 8% to more than 5%, with 2026 designated as the year of maximum investment.
Two upcoming events are in focus: the Annual General Meeting on April 15, which includes a vote on the appointment of Hendrik Krampe as the new CFO. This is more than a routine event, given the profound leadership change and the stock’s historic lows.
TRATON Navigates Tariff Pressures and Technical Support
TRATON declined 3.6% to €30.40. The Volkswagen commercial vehicle subsidiary faces a triple threat: US tariffs, unfavorable exchange rates, and the Iran conflict. “It will be a rollercoaster ride again,” said TRATON CEO Christian Levin.
The margin perspective remains tight. The adjusted operating return is forecast to be in a range of 5.3% to 7.3% for 2026, after having already fallen from 9.2% to 6.3% the previous year. Orders from North America declined by more than a fifth for the full year. CFO Michael Jackstein noted that the impact of US tariffs is likely to burden the entire financial year for the first time in 2026.
Technically, the stock is at a critical threshold. The share price is still holding the 200-day line in the €30.25 to €30.70 range—exactly today’s trading level. A slip below this would significantly darken the chart picture. Quarterly figures expected on April 29 should provide clarity on the extent of the burdens.
| Top Performers | Change | Largest Decliners | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| K+S | +4.5% | Delivery Hero | -5.5% |
| Wacker Chemie | +2.8% | Redcare Pharmacy | -4.5% |
| Aurubis | +3.4% | TRATON | -3.6% |
As long as the Iran conflict keeps oil prices above $111, this rotation is likely to persist. The upcoming quarterly reports in April and May will reveal whether the divergence between winners and losers in the MDAX widens further, or if a diplomatic détente reshuffles the deck.
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