BYD’s H-Share Slide Deepens as Home Market Losses Overshadow Record European Sales

BYD’s stock has taken a fresh battering in Hong Kong, with the H-shares shedding roughly 8% over the past week to close at 101.20 HKD on Friday. That marks a sharp retreat from the 110 HKD level seen at the start of the week, and brings the stock uncomfortably close to the psychologically critical 100 HKD threshold. The intraday low of 99.45 HKD underscores just how fragile investor sentiment has become.

The selloff reflects a deepening disconnect between BYD’s surging international business and its rapidly deteriorating home market. While the Shenzhen-based automaker posted a record 21,337 new vehicle registrations in the UK during the first quarter — with March sales alone jumping 134% year-on-year — the picture in China tells a very different story. Domestic deliveries slumped by a fifth in March, marking the seventh consecutive monthly decline.

European gains mask margin erosion

BYD’s broader European push is gathering pace. Across the continent, the company delivered around 50,000 vehicles in the opening quarter, more than doubling its regional market share to 2.4%. Management remains confident in hitting its full-year target of 1.5 million overseas sales, and is doubling down on production capacity with new factories in Hungary, Brazil and Turkey designed to sidestep tariff risks and regionalize supply chains.

But the international success story is being written against a brutal backdrop at home. A ferocious price war — fuelled by rivals such as Geely and Leapmotor — is forcing BYD to offer aggressive discounts that are eating deep into profitability. Last year, net profit shrank 19% to 32.6 billion yuan, and Citigroup analysts now believe the domestic business may have slipped into the red in the first quarter. If that proves accurate, the international division would become the group’s only profitable automotive segment for the first time.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?

Technology offensive as a counterweight

BYD is fighting back on two fronts: charging infrastructure and premium vehicles. The company plans to install 20,000 new ultra-fast charging points in China and a further 6,000 overseas within the next twelve months, directly targeting range anxiety among potential EV converts. The second-generation Blade Battery, capable of delivering over 1,000 kilometres of range, will be paired with a 1,500-kW charging architecture that can take a battery from 20% to 97% in under 12 minutes — even in cold weather.

On the product side, BYD showcased its Fang Cheng Bao luxury brand at the Beijing Auto Show, unveiling the “Formula S” series in three variants including a GT shooting-brake and a long-wheelbase version, alongside the two-seater Formula X sports car. Production of the Formula S models is slated to begin in the third quarter of 2026, offering a potential pathway into higher-margin segments that could offset some of the damage from the mass-market price war.

Earnings test looms

The next major catalyst arrives on Tuesday, when BYD’s board releases first-quarter results. Analysts expect revenue to fall roughly 21% to 134.4 billion yuan, with earnings per share forecast to drop by 47%. The stock currently trades with a 52-week range spanning from 88.50 HKD to 159.27 HKD, leaving plenty of room for further downside if the numbers disappoint.

Resistance sits at 110 to 112.50 HKD — a level the shares failed to hold at the start of the week. Support is being tested around the 100 HKD mark. BYD’s long-term ambition remains to sell half its vehicles abroad by 2030, and with the overseas share already at 40% in the first quarter, the structural shift is accelerating. Whether that narrative can outweigh the domestic headwinds will depend heavily on Tuesday’s numbers — and on whether the Formula S launch later this year can deliver the margin boost the market is hoping for.