Commerzbank’s Standalone Strategy Intensifies as BaFin Clamps Down on UniCredit

The battle for control of Commerzbank is entering a decisive phase, with management in Frankfurt doubling down on cost-cutting while regulators in Berlin throw up fresh obstacles for the Italian suitor. Bettina Orlopp, the bank’s chief executive, is preparing to deepen job reductions beyond the 3,900 full-time positions already earmarked for elimination by 2028, as part of a revamped strategy designed to convince shareholders that independence is the more profitable path.

The precise scale of the additional cuts is still being negotiated with labour representatives. Sascha Uebel, the works council chief, has signalled that the board’s plans are likely to be less severe than what would follow a takeover by UniCredit. Andrea Orcel, UniCredit’s CEO, has previously flagged as many as 7,000 job losses in the event of a merger — a figure that has sharpened resistance within Commerzbank’s workforce.

Regulator draws a red line on advertising

Tensions escalated on Friday when Germany’s financial watchdog, BaFin, issued a formal order prohibiting UniCredit from running what it deemed an unlawful advertising campaign. The Italian bank had placed ads on LinkedIn that questioned Commerzbank’s financial health and stability, employing what the regulator described as sensationalist language. BaFin ruled that the campaign violated the Securities Acquisition and Takeover Act by attempting to improperly influence shareholders ahead of a potential bid.

The prohibition extends to any future communications of a similar nature. UniCredit now faces the threat of fines if it breaches the order. Orcel had separately cast doubt on Commerzbank’s viability during a conference call, a move the regulator also views as an illegitimate attempt to sway investor sentiment.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?

Market jitters and analyst support

Commerzbank’s shares closed Friday at €33.94, down roughly 1.5% on the day and nearly 6% over the past week. Despite the short-term weakness, the stock has rallied 44% over the past twelve months, giving management some breathing room as it prepares its defence. The volatility, however, remains elevated at around 52%, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the bank’s future.

Analysts are backing the standalone narrative. RBC raised its price target to €43 with an “outperform” rating, while Barclays sees further upside with a €42 target. Both projections imply significant gains from current levels, suggesting the market has yet to fully price in the potential of Orlopp’s restructuring plan.

May 8: the pivotal date

All eyes are now on 8 May, when Commerzbank will unveil its new strategic targets alongside first-quarter results. The numbers will form the basis of the next annual general meeting and will effectively determine whether shareholders endorse Orlopp’s austerity drive or entertain the overtures from Milan. UniCredit currently holds roughly 30% of Commerzbank’s shares, giving it considerable influence over the outcome.

For Orlopp, the challenge is twofold: she must deliver a credible path to higher profitability through deeper cost cuts, while also demonstrating that the bank can thrive without a buyer. The BaFin intervention buys her some time, but the ultimate verdict rests with investors who will weigh the promise of an independent turnaround against the certainty of a cash offer.