ASML’s €1,240 Rally Defies TSMC’s High-NA EUV Pause as Dividend and Buyback Plans Take Shape

ASML’s stock closed the week at €1,240.80, up roughly 3%, even as its most important customer, TSMC, pushed back plans to buy the chipmaking giant’s most expensive machines. The advance extends the Dutch lithography specialist’s year-to-date gain to over 25%, and the shares now trade well above their 50-day moving average of around €1,201.

The resilience reflects a mix of strong quarterly results, an upgraded revenue forecast, and shareholder-friendly capital moves approved at the annual general meeting. But beneath the surface, a delayed order from Taiwan and mounting export-control pressure from Washington are shaping a more complex outlook.

TSMC’s High-NA EUV Delay Reshapes the Demand Timeline

TSMC, ASML’s largest single client, has pushed back the introduction of so-called High-NA EUV lithography machines to roughly 2029. Each of these systems costs about €350 million. Rather than adopt the next-generation technology, the Taiwanese chipmaker plans to extend the life of its existing EUV tools by combining them with advanced packaging techniques such as CoWoS and 3D-IC.

The decision initially rattled markets, with some analysts flagging a risk to near-term demand for ASML’s highest-margin products. But the concern faded quickly. Intel and Samsung are sticking to their plans to integrate High-NA EUV into upcoming manufacturing cycles, providing an alternative demand stream. ASML itself reaffirmed its long-term revenue target of €44 billion to €60 billion by 2030, suggesting the delay from Taipei is a timing issue rather than a structural blow.

Analysts at Freedom Capital upgraded their rating on ASML to “Strong Buy,” while UBS and Sanford C. Bernstein maintained their buy recommendations. The consensus view is that long-term demand for semiconductor infrastructure, particularly for artificial intelligence applications, remains intact.

Q1 Beats and a Raised 2026 Outlook

The company’s first-quarter results provided immediate support. ASML reported net revenue of €8.8 billion and net profit of €2.8 billion for the three months ended March 2026. Management responded by lifting the full-year 2026 revenue forecast to a range of €36 billion to €40 billion, up from a previous floor of €34 billion.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?

EUV lithography systems accounted for roughly two-thirds of equipment sales in the quarter. The only soft spot is the second-quarter gross margin, which is expected to dip to between 51% and 52% after a strong start to the year.

Shareholders Get a Dividend Boost and a Buyback Mandate

At the annual general meeting, shareholders approved a final dividend of €2.70 per share, bringing the total payout for the past financial year to €7.50 — a 17% increase year-on-year. The ex-dividend date for the quarterly payment of $3.18 per share is Monday, April 27, with the cash due on May 5.

In addition, the board received authorization to buy back up to 10% of the company’s share capital through October 2027. ASML had already spent roughly €1.1 billion on share repurchases in the first quarter.

Export Controls Loom Over the China Business

While the TSMC delay is a near-term headwind, a longer-term risk is building in Washington. The MATCH Act, currently under discussion in the U.S. Congress, could force the Netherlands to align its export rules for DUV lithography machines with American standards within 150 days.

China accounted for 33% of ASML’s revenue in 2025. For 2026, the company expects that share to fall to around 20%, partly because domestic manufacturers such as SMIC are pushing for self-sufficiency and partly because existing export restrictions are already taking effect. Tighter rules would accelerate that decline and add further pressure to long-term planning.

Hyperscaler Earnings as the Next Catalyst

The immediate catalyst for ASML’s stock may come from outside the company. On April 29, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are due to report quarterly results. Their combined capital expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to exceed $700 billion in 2026. How aggressively these hyperscalers invest in chips and data centers will set the tone for the entire semiconductor sector — and determine whether ASML’s shares can close the gap to their 52-week high of €1,295.