The Trade Desk: CEO’s $150 Million Bet Tests the Depth of the Selloff

The Trade Desk is presenting investors with a puzzle rarely seen in beaten-down growth stocks. Chief executive Jeff Green has poured roughly $150 million of his own money into the company’s shares at a time when the stock is down 72% over the past twelve months. Meanwhile, an analyst at Rothschild & Co Redburn sees the equity losing another 50% from current levels. The two signals are diametrically opposed, and the market is struggling to pick a side.

Bianca Dallal of Rothschild initiated coverage with a Sell rating and an $11 price target. Her bear case centers on the threat posed by Amazon and Google, both of which are rolling out AI-powered advertising tools — some offered at no cost. That puts pressure on The Trade Desk’s take rate, currently around 20% of the ad budgets flowing through its platform. If that margin compresses, the business model comes under severe strain. Dallal also points to decelerating momentum: revenue growth slowed to 12% in the first quarter from 25% a year earlier, and the firm’s momentum score sits at just 2.24.

But the insider buying tells a different story. Over the past three months, executives and directors have purchased shares worth $148 million against only $4.7 million in sales. The bulk of that sum came from Green himself. The company also holds $1.4 billion in cash with zero debt, giving it plenty of runway even as the operating environment grows tougher.

The first-quarter numbers offered something for both camps. Revenue reached $689 million, roughly in line with expectations, and earnings per share came in at $0.08. The EBITDA margin, however, slipped to 30% from 34% a year ago. For the second quarter, management guided for at least $750 million in revenue and adjusted EBITDA of around $260 million. Customer retention has held above 95% for twelve consecutive years — a rare bright spot in an otherwise volatile picture.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying The Trade Desk?

Operational headwinds extend beyond the duopoly’s encroachment. Publicis Groupe, one of the world’s largest agency holding companies, recommended that its clients withdraw from The Trade Desk’s platform earlier this year after a dispute over fee structures. That blow came alongside intensifying competition from Amazon in programmatic advertising.

The clash between insider confidence and analyst skepticism has attracted short sellers. Short interest jumped 50% in March, prompting S3 Partners to issue its first short-squeeze warning for the stock in a year. Technically, the stock remains under pressure: it trades at €18.43, just 7% above the 52-week low of €17.17, and sits below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. The relative strength index is 36, near but not yet in oversold territory.

Amid the turmoil, the board has reshuffled compensation for a departing executive. Samantha Jacobson, who resigned as chief strategy officer in mid-May to become vice president of partnerships at OpenAI, will stay on as a non-executive director. Under a filing dated May 28, she will receive an annual cash retainer of $50,000 plus a stock grant worth $290,000, prorated from May 18 until the next annual meeting. The shares vest fully only at that meeting — a structure that ties her incentives to The Trade Desk’s performance even as she takes a senior role at a key partner.

The next major test comes with second-quarter earnings. By then, investors will have a clearer read on whether the Kokai AI platform can help The Trade Desk defend its turf against Amazon and Google. Until then, the stock is caught between a CEO betting big on a turnaround and a market that has already priced in a much darker outcome.