BlackRock and State Street Place Their Bets on AST SpaceMobile as the Stock Holds Its Breath for a June Launch

A curious split is playing out around AST SpaceMobile. While nine out of eleven analysts surveyed advise a “Hold” and the average price target of $82.24 sits well below the current share price, two of the world’s largest asset managers have been loading up. BlackRock raised its stake by 22% to 14.52 million shares in the first quarter, and State Street added 41%. For institutions that size, those are not casual bets.

The stock itself has surrendered some of its jaw-dropping twelve-month gain of 267%. From a peak of €114.60 in late May, the shares have slipped roughly 19% to around €92.60. A one-week stretch alone wiped out 21% of the value. The trigger was partly a downgrade from Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft on 29 May, who cut his rating to “Hold” and lowered the price target from $117 to $106. Momentum traders wasted no time booking profits.

Then came an unrelated explosion during a Blue Origin rocket engine test. No AST SpaceMobile hardware was involved, but the market priced in a risk of delays to launch schedules. The episode added to a narrative already frayed by a messy first quarter.

On the earnings front, Q1 2026 missed expectations by a wide margin. Revenue came in at $14.7 million against a consensus of $37.5 million. The loss per share was -$0.66, three times worse than the -$0.21 the Street had penciled in. Management blamed timing on gateway installations and government contract milestones. The full-year revenue forecast of $150 million to $200 million remains intact, backed by a commercial pipeline exceeding $1.2 billion.

The company has deep pockets to weather the gap. Cash and liquid assets total roughly $3.5 billion, enough to cover the build-out of approximately 90 satellites. The goal is to have 45 to 60 of the BlueBird spacecraft in orbit by the end of 2026. Production is already ramping to six fully equipped units per month.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying AST SpaceMobile?

The next big test comes in mid-June, when a SpaceX Falcon 9 is scheduled to carry BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 into low Earth orbit. Two of the satellites have already arrived at Cape Canaveral; the third is en route. These are Block 2 satellites carrying what the company says are the largest commercial phased-array antennas ever deployed in LEO — each roughly 223 square meters, capable of delivering peak speeds of 120 Mbps directly to standard 4G and 5G smartphones.

The launch follows the failure of BlueBird 7 in April, which had to be deorbited. That setback still weighs on sentiment. The upcoming flight is a chance to show the production and deployment engine is back on track.

Analyst price targets reflect the uncertainty with unusual range. Roth Capital is the most optimistic at $108 — raised from $82.50 — while Clear Street lowered its target from $137 to $115. At the other end, Barclays sits at $65 with an “Underweight” rating, and UBS sees $80. B. Riley Securities is in the middle at $85. The divergence boils down to a single question: how fast and reliably can AST SpaceMobile build out its constellation?

The stock has already swung from €25.20 to over €114 in the past twelve months. Another volatile leg may be in store once the Falcon 9 lifts off. For now, the bulls are betting that institutional conviction and a $3.5 billion war chest outweigh a quarterly miss and a cautious analyst consensus.