Voestalpine’s Record Profits Mask a Tale of Two Businesses: Aerospace Orders Surge as Oil-Rod Division Sinks

The Linz-based steelmaker just delivered its strongest annual earnings in two decades, yet the stock can’t catch a bid. Voestalpine reported a group net profit of €424 million for the 2025/26 financial year, a jump of nearly 138% from the prior year. EBIT climbed 59% to €724 million on revenue of €15.1 billion. But beneath the headline numbers, the story is far from uniform: the high-performance aerospace and rail divisions are firing on all cylinders, while the tubulars unit is being hammered by US tariffs and weak oil prices.

Free cash flow of €537 million allowed management to pare net financial debt to €1.3 billion, bringing the gearing ratio down to 16.2% — the lowest level since the 2005/06 fiscal year. That deleveraging is a clear positive, but it hasn’t prevented the stock from sliding. Shares closed at €43.30, down roughly 8.5% over the past 30 days and now trading just below the 50-day moving average of €44.94. On a weekly basis, the loss is about 5%, with the price recently dipping to €42.52 and breaching that same technical support.

Much of the near-term selling pressure can be traced to the Voestalpine Tubulars division. US import duties of up to 50% have made specialty pipes for the oil and gas industry prohibitively expensive, and low crude prices are further depressing demand. The company estimates the negative earnings impact at between €60 million and €80 million. That drag stands in stark contrast to the rest of the group, where order books are bulging.

The High Performance Metals Division secured aerospace contracts worth roughly €1 billion over the next five years — its largest ever such haul. A significant portion comes from Airbus, covering high-strength alloys and forged components for the A320, A330 and A350 families. The capacity at Voestalpine’s sites in Kapfenberg, Mürzzuschlag and its Brazilian subsidiary Villares Metals is now effectively booked through 2031. Rail operations also added heft in March, with Deutsche Bahn and Swiss Federal Railways awarding combined orders of €500 million for rails, switches and signalling equipment.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Voestalpine?

European trade policy is shifting in the group’s favour. From 1 July 2026, a new EU steel safeguard regime will slash duty-free import quotas to 18.3 million tonnes annually, with a 50% tariff applied to anything above that level. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), fully operational since January 2026, adds an estimated €40 to €70 per tonne on steel imports from China or Turkey, erasing the traditional price discount. An additional measure — the melt-and-pour principle — will come into force in October, requiring importers to prove where their steel was originally melted and cast, making circumvention far more costly. Voestalpine is also ploughing ahead with its decarbonisation programme, having already contractually committed around 60% of the budget for new electric arc furnaces.

Shareholders have a date with the annual general meeting in July, where management proposes a dividend of €0.75 per share, up from the prior year. The deadline for submitting the required depositary confirmation expires at the end of this week.

Analyst opinion remains split. Deutsche Bank sees the stock reaching €60, while Oddo BHF rates it only “Neutral” with a fair value of €46. The relative strength index sits at 38.9, flirting with oversold territory. For the current 2026/27 financial year, the board expects EBITDA in a range of €1.60 billion to €1.85 billion, supported by an expected 4–5% increase in EU steel consumption and three consecutive years of destocking that have left inventories low. A recovery above the 50-day moving average of roughly €45 would likely restore some chart confidence — but until the tubulars headwind eases, the market’s attention will stay fixed on the weakest link.