Starbase Static Fire Clears Path for Next Starship Test as SpaceX Stock Hovers at a Crossroads

The latest hurdle for SpaceX’s Starship program was cleared on July 2 in Texas, where the upper stage known as Ship 40 completed a full-duration static-fire test. All six Raptor engines — three sea-level and three vacuum-optimized — burned for 60 seconds without issue. That technical milestone paves the way for the system’s 13th test flight, expected later this month, during which engineers aim to relight the Raptors in orbit and refine the water landing of the Super Heavy booster.

The smooth progress in Boca Chica contrasts sharply with the turbulence that has gripped SpaceX stock since its historic debut on June 12. The shares have careened from an initial listing near $150 to a peak of $225.64 and then back down, closing Friday at $160.98 on the Nasdaq. After-hours trading slipped a further 0.53%. The 52-week range now spans $135 to $225.64, and the company’s market capitalization stands at roughly $2.1 trillion.

A One-Day Collision of Opposing Forces

All eyes are on Tuesday, July 7. Two events with diametrically opposed potential impacts converge that day. After the close on Monday, SpaceX will officially join the Nasdaq-100 index. Index funds and ETFs tracking the benchmark must readjust their portfolios, generating forced buying estimated at $4.3 billion to accommodate the company’s roughly one-percent weighting.

Simultaneously, the 25-day quiet period mandated for the 23 banks in the IPO underwriting syndicate expires. Since the listing, those institutions have been legally barred from publishing research or price targets on the stock. Starting Tuesday, they can speak freely — and the market has been anxiously awaiting their verdicts on a company valued at over $2 trillion.

The tension between mechanical buying pressure on one side and potentially critical analyst assessments on the other sets the stage for extreme volatility. The spread in existing analyst opinions already signals deep disagreement: price targets range from $62 to $310 per share, with a median of roughly $227 among eleven analysts surveyed — implying about 33% upside from current levels.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?

Congress Joins the Shareholder Ranks

Adding a further layer of intrigue, newly filed disclosures reveal that two U.S. representatives purchased SpaceX stock in the days after the IPO. Republican Dan Meuser of Pennsylvania reported that his minor child bought between $15,001 and $50,000 worth of shares on June 15. Democrat Gil Cisneros of California acquired a package valued between $1,001 and $15,000 three days later.

The committee assignments of both lawmakers lend the trades particular resonance. Meuser sits on the House Financial Services Committee, which oversees securities regulation. Cisneros serves on the Armed Services Committee, the panel that controls the Department of Defense — one of SpaceX’s largest customers. There is no evidence of wrongdoing, and ethics watchdogs expect more such disclosures from members of both parties in the coming weeks. A proposed ban on congressional stock trading cleared a Senate committee in July 2025 but has since stalled.

The Valuation Gap That Won’t Go Away

Even the most generous fundamental assessments struggle to justify the current market price. Morningstar recently estimated SpaceX’s fair value in its most bullish scenario — assuming full success of all long-term growth plans — at $1.97 trillion, or roughly $154 per share. That “moonshot” figure sits below Friday’s closing price.

The company’s financials paint a picture of rapid expansion weighed down by heavy spending. In the twelve months through the IPO, SpaceX reported revenue of $19.3 billion and operating cash flow of $7.1 billion. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, revenue hit $4.7 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase. Connectivity services contributed 70% of that total, while spaceflight and artificial-intelligence operations each accounted for roughly 15%. Yet the quarterly net loss widened to $4.3 billion, compared with $528 million in the same period a year earlier, driven by a surge in AI-related research costs.

How the 23 syndicate banks frame that disconnect between an optimistic $310 target and a pessimistic $62 floor — and how the forced index buying interacts with their first public calls — will determine whether the week ahead ends in euphoria or a reality check. For a stock that has already swung from euphoria to near-IPO-price levels in its first month, July 7 promises no shortage of fireworks.