XRP’s $1.09 Holding Pattern: Ripple’s Banking Progress Meets Political Uncertainty and Institutional Pullback

The Swift pilot with 17 major banks briefly lifted XRP by 1.6 percent last week, but the euphoria evaporated almost as quickly as it appeared. Tom Zschach, Swift’s former chief innovation officer, publicly dismissed online rumors that the network would integrate XRP, clarifying that the pilot tests tokenized bank deposits rather than any specific cryptocurrency. The disconnect between Ripple’s expanding institutional footprint and the token’s stubborn price gridlock has become the defining narrative of mid-2026.

XRP changes hands at $1.09, barely above its 52-week low of $1.01 set on June 26. The token sits 70 percent below the July 2025 high of $3.65 and has shed 41.75 percent since the start of the year. On a 12-month basis, the decline reaches 54.55 percent. Technical indicators reinforce the bearish posture: the 50-day moving average at $1.17, the 100-day at $1.28, and the 200-day at $1.46 all stand above the current price, while the relative strength index reads 44.1 — edgy but not oversold.

Political Clock Ticks on CLARITY Act

The Senate is expected to receive a consolidated version of the CLARITY Act during the week of July 13, with plenary vote scheduled for July 20. The bill would reclassify most digital tokens, including XRP, as digital commodities under CFTC jurisdiction, stripping the SEC of its current enforcement role. That prospect has electrified the asset’s long-term believers, but the path to passage is narrowing. Polymarket odds of enactment have fallen from 74 percent to 39 percent, while Galaxy Research assigns a 50-50 chance by year-end. Senator Lummis warned that failure would push comprehensive regulation to 2030. Disputes over ethics rules for public officials, DeFi developer liability, and unaddressed stablecoin yield questions continue to stall progress. The White House has not yet endorsed the merged text.

Whales Hoard as Institutions Taper

On-chain data tells a story of stark divergence. Exchange-held XRP supply has plunged from 3.76 billion tokens nine months ago to roughly 1.6 billion — a seven-year low. Spot ETFs absorbed around 970 million XRP from circulation. Meanwhile, large wallet addresses added 1.53 billion tokens in six months, pushing their collective share to 74 percent of total supply.

Yet institutional flows through exchange-traded products paint a less confident picture. Spot XRP ETFs have posted eight consecutive weeks of net inflows totaling $1.48 billion, but the pace has collapsed. On July 10, net inflows hit just $107,380 — the second-lowest daily figure since launch. Multiple days during the prior week recorded zero movement, and one day saw an outflow of $7.29 million, the largest single-day withdrawal since March 2026. Only 21Shares still reported meaningful inflows. Standard Chartered joined the cautious camp, slashing its year-end target from $8 to $2.80 — a 65 percent haircut — citing the token’s underwhelming 2026 performance.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?

Derivatives markets reflect similar wariness. Open interest crashed from roughly $1.3 billion to under $150 million in the spot market, a one-year low, while long liquidations ran 800 percent above normal. On futures platforms, the long-short ratio slipped to 0.96, with bearish bets now marginally outweighing bullish ones, and total open interest declined from $2.58 billion to $2.33 billion.

Ripple’s Operational Engine Keeps Turning

Beneath the price surface, Ripple continues to build. Ripple Treasury, launched in January 2026 on the GTreasury platform acquired for $1 billion in October 2025, is designed to streamline XRP access to the SWIFT network. Cross-border settlements via that channel reportedly take three to five seconds using the RLUSD stablecoin. Turkey became the latest market for RLUSD in early June, with BiLira, Bitexen, and Bitlo offering it to institutional clients. In Europe, Ripple secured a full MiCA crypto-asset service provider license from Luxembourg’s CSSF, enabling operations across the European Economic Area. A sponsorship deal with Kansas Athletics added a sports-marketing dimension to the corporate portfolio.

The Pattern Repeats

Chart resistance sits near $1.094 — the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement from the recent selloff — and the 50-day moving average at $1.17 looms above. Conversely, the $1.00 handle has held as support, offering the token an 8 percent cushion above its cycle low. The annualized 30-day volatility of 36.42 percent underscores the market’s edgy, range-bound tone.

The Swift pilot episode encapsulates a recurring 2026 motif: Ripple scores real institutional wins, headlines erupt, XRP jumps, and then the fundamental question — does this create direct demand for the token itself? — remains unanswered. Until that uncertainty clears, the $1.10 zone is likely to stay contested.