SpaceX Faces Twin Headwinds: Chinese Rocket Milestone and Lock-Up Fears Overshadow Starship Progress

The party that followed SpaceX’s record-breaking initial public offering is giving way to a sobering reality check. Shares closed at $145.39 on Friday, shedding 4.45% in a single session and capping a week that wiped nearly 9.4% from the stock. The decline leaves the equity more than 35% below its all-time high of $225.64, hit just days after the June 12 IPO priced at $135 per share.

Investors are grappling with two narratives at once. On one hand, SpaceX achieved a technical milestone on Friday: all 33 Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster for Starship Flight 13 fired successfully at the Starbase facility in Texas. The Federal Aviation Administration has penciled in a provisional launch date of July 14, 2026, though company executives stress that the mission remains a test flight and that full orbital injection is not expected until Flight 14. On the other hand, the same day brought news that China’s Long March 10B rocket had, for the first time, recovered its first stage — a booster that landed on a floating platform using a net system. The feat, executed by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, has cooled the so-called “Musk premium” that had inflated SpaceX’s valuation since the IPO.

Wall Street is deeply split on where the stock goes from here. Brian Gesuale of Raymond James initiated coverage with the highest price target on the Street, drawing a comparison between SpaceX’s infrastructure and the invention of electricity. At the opposite end, Keith Snyder at CFRA Research maintains a sell rating with a $115 target, pointing to a valuation that sits at roughly 101 times sales. “Speculative hope currently overshadows actual growth,” Snyder argues.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?

The options market is flashing a cautious signal. An unusually large volume of long-dated put options changed hands on Friday, with a strike price of $80 and expiration at the end of 2028. Analysts see institutional investors building hedges against downside risk, with a particular focus on the August 2026 lock-up expiration, when roughly 20% of insider shares become eligible for sale.

Operationally, SpaceX continues to set records. The company deployed 1,589 satellites in the first half of 2026, up from 1,489 in the same period last year, putting it on pace for more than 3,000 launches this year. Friday alone saw a Starlink mission from Vandenberg Space Force Base deliver 24 satellites, following a 29-satellite launch from Cape Canaveral the day before. That cadence underpins the Starlink business model, which investors view as the key driver of the company’s trillion-dollar-plus market capitalization — a $2.15 trillion peak that has since deflated.

Two catalysts could help restore confidence. A potential inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index, expected in the coming months, would trigger passive inflows from exchange-traded funds and index funds worth billions. A successful Flight 13 of Starship would also serve as a fundamental catalyst, though the vehicle has yet to carry any paying payloads. Until then, the stock remains trapped in a consolidation range with the $135 IPO price serving as floor and the $160 zone as resistance, while the 50-day moving average is being tested as the speculative frenzy gives way to a more measured evaluation.