SpaceX Shares Rise as First Lock-Up Release Meets Strong Quarter

SpaceX entered a potentially messy trading day with a cleaner result than many investors had braced for. The first tranche of locked-up insider stock became tradeable on Thursday, yet the shares still finished 6.55 percent higher at 99.55 Euro, after a stretch in which the stock had fallen 23.26 percent over the previous 30 days.

The unlock was substantial. About 911.5 million shares, worth roughly $100 billion, were released, lifting the freely tradeable portion of the company to 11.8 percent of outstanding stock from around 5 percent before the first wave. Further tranches are due to follow until 8 December.

That steadier tone in the market came after SpaceX had already shaken investors with its first quarterly report as a listed company. On Tuesday, the group posted second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, or $7.814 billion in the later disclosure, up 92 percent from a year earlier and ahead of the $6.9 billion consensus estimate. The company still reported a net loss of $541 million, equal to $0.09 a share, narrower than the $0.26-per-share loss analysts had expected. Adjusted EBITDA rose 191 percent to $3.538 billion.

Starlink remained the main growth engine. The connectivity business had 12 million paying subscribers at quarter-end, double the level of a year earlier, and added 1.7 million customers in the quarter, its strongest increase yet. Connectivity revenue climbed 66 percent to $4.3 billion, while the broader AI segment, which includes cloud services, Grok and X subscriptions, grew 247 percent to $2.56 billion. Average revenue per user fell from $85 to $66 a month, which the company linked mainly to international expansion.

Capital spending, however, kept the stock under pressure. SpaceX said it invested $18.369 billion in the second quarter, including $15.828 billion on AI infrastructure. Even with $100 billion in cash and marketable securities on the balance sheet, that scale of spending unsettled some shareholders. Reuters also reported an acquisition backlog of $47.5 billion.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?

The split among analysts was immediate. JPMorgan raised its target from $225 to $240 and kept an overweight-style positive stance, citing SpaceX’s “extreme vertical integration” and the pace at which AI infrastructure could be monetized. Piper Sandler went the other way, cutting its target from $156 to $140 while keeping a neutral view, pointing to the lock-up overhang and expected 2027 capital expenditures of $65 billion. Bank of America reiterated a buy rating with a $235 target and said the AI unit could generate $24.5 billion in revenue by the end of 2026, while Wells Fargo trimmed its target to $215 on fears that investment growth could outstrip revenue growth. Mizuho’s Brett Linzey described the post-earnings drop as an attractive entry point.

The market’s reaction to the results was initially harsher in the US, where the stock fell about 7 percent after the announcement. By Thursday, though, trading looked calmer. Fisher Asset Management added to its position after the report, the RSI stood at 41.9 in neutral territory, and 30-day volatility remained close to 79 percent.

Operationally, the next catalysts are already lined up. Elon Musk said on the earnings call that Starship Flight 14 is planned for the end of August, with the first “Ship Catch” attempt on the return journey. He also said the 14th test flight is subject to regulatory approval and that first-generation Starlink V3 satellites are expected to go up as part of the mission. The previous test, Flight 13, took place at the end of July, with its capsule surviving re-entry well enough to float in the ocean.

SpaceX and Nvidia have also announced a collaboration on satellite-based computing. Under that plan, a payload called Starmind AI1 will carry Nvidia chips from the Rubin and Vera generations into orbit. Musk reiterated the goal of reaching a $100 billion annualized recurring revenue run rate by year-end.

There was no shortage of external developments around the company either. NASA said the Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station could launch no earlier than 12 September. The US Space Force awarded contracts to Rocket Lab and Systems Technology Research for aircraft-tracking satellites, a move aimed at reducing reliance on SpaceX in that area. Separately, a spent 2025 Falcon 9 upper stage hit the Moon near the Einstein crater, leaving an impact hole about 18 meters wide, according to images from South Korea’s Danuri orbiter. The FAA, meanwhile, proposed at the end of July suspending environmental reviews under 13 laws for commercial space launch licenses in a bid to increase launch frequency.