Almonty’s Tungsten Math: When a 498% Revenue Jump Still Leaves Room for Debate

The tungsten market has a new arithmetic problem, and it is not the kind that shows up in a geology textbook. Wolfram prices have climbed 622 percent between January 2025 and April 2026 — more than triple the advance of any other critical mineral category tracked by the International Energy Agency — and Almonty Industries sits squarely at the intersection of that price shock and a Western supply chain scrambling for alternatives to Chinese dominance.

China controls roughly 80 percent of global tungsten supply, a concentration that has turned every headline out of Beijing into a potential catalyst. The latest: reports that Chinese suppliers are withholding shipments to US customers despite valid export licenses, a development that has injected fresh urgency into the broader critical minerals complex.

The Numbers Behind the Narrative

Almonty’s second-quarter results, released ahead of the recent market chatter, gave investors something concrete to anchor to. Revenue jumped 498 percent year over year to $43.0 million, a sequential gain of 69 percent. Mining operating income reached $26.1 million, while adjusted EBITDA came in at $17.6 million — an improvement of more than $22 million against the prior-year quarter. Net income swung to $181.8 million from a loss of $58.2 million.

Earnings per share landed at $0.45, roughly three and a half times the $0.10 analysts had penciled in, following a loss in the year-ago period. The figures reflect a simple operational reality: the Sangdong mine is now producing and selling, not just promising to.

Jefferies launched coverage on Wednesday with a buy rating and a $26.25 price target, naming Almonty a top pick alongside Element Solutions. The firm’s thesis centers on the company’s role in building Western tungsten supply chains outside China. D.A. Davidson has gone further, lifting its target to $33, while the broader S&P Global-compiled consensus sits at “Strong Buy” with an average target of $25.94 — roughly 46 percent above current levels. Morgan Stanley’s Laurence Alexander has also flagged the stock as a top pick.

A Balance Sheet That Changes the Conversation

The stock closed Friday at €15.17, down 1.2 percent on the day but up 31 percent over the past month. Year to date, the gain stands at 91 percent, with the shares having more than quadrupled from the €3.50 low touched last September. The current price sits about 26 percent below the 52-week high of €20.61, set in April.

That pullback has done little to dent the structural argument. In June, Almonty closed an oversubscribed convertible bond offering of $800 million, lifting its cash position to C$1.2 billion. The war chest has enabled a share buyback program of up to 14.4 million shares — roughly 5 percent of outstanding stock — spread over three years, announced in August.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Management has also streamlined the listing structure. The ASX delisting became effective Tuesday, following the earlier TSX exit, leaving Nasdaq and Frankfurt as the primary trading venues. The move consolidates liquidity where it matters most for the company’s US-focused growth story, even if it offers little immediate price catalyst.

The operational pipeline has kept pace. In mid-July, the offtake agreement for the Sangdong project was expanded to an annual revenue volume of $490 million. A separate financing commitment from US export credit agency EXIM covers a $670 million facility for Graphite Creek, though that pertains to a different company in the complex.

Where the Skeptics Find Their Footing

For all the momentum, the valuation debate has grown louder. The stock’s annualized volatility of 87 percent serves as a reminder that a share price that has more than quadrupled in a year can move sharply in either direction. Critics point to the now-elevated valuation relative to sector peers and the risk of further export restrictions from Beijing — measures that could theoretically squeeze the very supply chains Almonty is helping to build.

The recent consolidation — down 2.6 percent over the past seven days — reads more like a pause than a reversal, but the gap between the April high and current levels suggests some investors are taking profits while the fundamental story catches up to the price.

The Broader Sector Calculus

Almonty’s trajectory stands in contrast to other names navigating the same geopolitical currents. MP Materials closed Friday at €46.95, up 1.5 percent on the day but down 3.2 percent on the week, with second-quarter revenue of $108.49 million beating consensus estimates of $95.95 million. Graphite One has fallen 53 percent year to date ahead of a September 29 decision from the US Army Corps of Engineers on its Graphite Creek project. Apex Critical Metals, an early-stage explorer, remains down 32 percent for the year despite encouraging drill results from its Nebraska rare earth project.

The near-term catalysts for Almonty are less binary than for some peers, but the stakes are no lower. Whether the current export friction with China eases or escalates ahead of a potential Xi-Trump meeting will likely shape sentiment across the entire critical minerals complex. For Almonty, the operational proof is now in the financial statements — the question is whether the market’s enthusiasm has already priced in the tungsten supercycle, or whether the real numbers justify a valuation that has moved from turnaround story to growth debate.