Sivers Semiconductors: A Growth Story Caught Between Short Sellers and a Shrinking Analyst Fan Club

The optics are compelling — literally. Sivers Semiconductors has identified a $4 billion market for optical amplifiers feeding into AI data centers, and it is spending $30 million to retool its Glasgow facility to chase it. But the Swedish chipmaker’s share price tells a messier story, one shaped by persistent short sellers, a fractured analyst community, and a stock that remains 27 percent below its 50-day moving average.

The Glasgow expansion, first flagged during last Wednesday’s second-quarter earnings call, is slated to begin in the second half of 2026 with operations starting in the fourth quarter of 2027. Beyond simply adding indium phosphide laser capacity, the upgraded plant will introduce new process capabilities and higher automation levels — a deliberate pivot toward optical switching systems for AI data centers, a segment the company believes is worth $4 billion.

That diversification logic extends beyond the Glasgow buildout. Sivers is working with Jabil on an energy-efficient 1.6T pluggable module, positioning itself within the optical interconnect supply chain. Production orders are flowing from Tachyon Networks, while ALL.SPACE has placed manufacturing orders and SemiNex has awarded initial program contracts. Management describes its opportunity pipeline as a record $1.2 billion.

The stock has recovered 29 percent since Wednesday’s earnings release, closing Friday at €2.50, up 3.1 percent on the day. Yet that bounce masks a deeper fragility. The shares remain well below the €3.44 50-day average, and 30-day annualized volatility sits at an eye-watering 161 percent. The gap between operational momentum and actual revenue — management doesn’t expect an inflection point until the fourth quarter of 2026, with margin expansion following in 2027 — explains much of the turbulence.

The bearish camp shows no signs of retreating. D E Shaw and Citadel Securities were both reported as short sellers in the stock last Monday. By Thursday, MarketScreener noted Citadel Securities was no longer listed as a public short position, though whether that reflects a genuine exit or simply a dip below the reporting threshold remains unclear.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Sivers Semiconductors?

Analyst opinions have diverged sharply. The Swedish business daily DI issued a critical assessment last Friday, advising against the stock after what it termed a catastrophic report. Redeye, by contrast, reaffirmed its fair value of 7.40 Swedish kronor on Thursday — well above current trading levels. The split encapsulates the central tension: believers point to the billion-dollar pipeline and strategic expansion, while skeptics focus on persistent losses and the need for fresh capital.

That capital need has been addressed, at least for now. Sivers says it has strengthened its balance sheet through substantial share issues and loan conversions following the second quarter, providing cover for both the Glasgow investment and preparations for a potential US dual listing targeted for readiness by early 2027.

Adding to the information vacuum, MarketScreener announced last Wednesday it was ending its coverage of the company entirely. For investors, that removes another independent voice from the debate just as the fundamental questions — growth story versus capital requirements — remain unresolved.

The Glasgow bet is financed, the pipeline is at a record, and new customer programs are emerging. Whether that translates into orders before the expanded capacity even comes online is the question that will ultimately separate the bulls from the bears. For now, the market’s verdict is written in 161 percent volatility and a share price still nursing deep wounds.