Rocket Lab’s Valuation Gap Widens as Iridium Deal Clears Its Final Hurdle

The disconnect between Rocket Lab’s operational cadence and its stock price has rarely been starker. While the company notched its 94th Electron launch on Thursday — delivering an Earth-observation satellite for Japanese customer Synspective into a 575-kilometer orbit — the shares have shed 14 percent over the past 30 days and now sit 59 percent below their 52-week high. That divergence is testing even the most patient shareholders, yet the underlying business story continues to build momentum.

The Iridium Deal Moves From Paper to Process

The most consequential development of recent weeks isn’t visible on a launch pad. Rocket Lab’s proposed acquisition of Iridium cleared its antitrust review when the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period expired on August 12 without objection. The following day, the company filed an S-4 registration statement with the SEC to register the shares it will use as acquisition currency — a signal that management is betting Iridium’s shareholders will accept Rocket Lab equity as payment.

The companies had already petitioned the Federal Communications Commission on August 10 to transfer Iridium’s licenses. The regulatory scaffolding is now largely in place, leaving shareholder votes and integration planning as the remaining milestones. For an industry undergoing rapid consolidation, the deal positions Rocket Lab less as a pure launch provider and more as an orbital infrastructure platform.

Record Revenue Meets Insider Selling

The financial picture remains robust. Rocket Lab reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $234 million on August 10 — a record and a 62 percent year-over-year jump — while its backlog swelled to $2.36 billion, more than double the prior-year figure. Third-quarter guidance calls for revenue between $250 million and $265 million, with GAAP gross margin of 29 to 31 percent and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $17 million to $23 million. Those are the numbers of a company still investing heavily but keeping its cost structure disciplined.

Yet August also brought a wave of insider transactions that gave some investors pause. Five executives sold roughly $5.5 million worth of shares during the month, including General Counsel Arjun Kampani, who disposed of 6,034 shares on August 27 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan at prices between $66.50 and $67.16. President Marvin Bradford Clevenger sold 15,051 shares on August 24 at an average price of $69.63, netting about $1.05 million. The CFO and COO also participated in the selling.

These sales were executed through pre-arranged plans to cover tax obligations on vested equity awards — routine mechanics that don’t necessarily reflect management’s view of the company’s prospects. Still, in a falling market, every insider transaction reads more ominously than it might otherwise.

ARK Bets Against the Crowd

On the other side of the trade sits Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, which purchased roughly 705,000 shares across two trading sessions in late August and early September for approximately $44.5 million. The buying came during a period of pronounced share-price weakness, suggesting ARK views the pullback as an entry point rather than an exit signal. Such moves don’t prove the stock is cheap, but they illustrate how widely interpretations of the same data can diverge.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab?

The technical picture, meanwhile, remains unflattering. The stock closed Friday at $55.50, up 1.1 percent on the day but roughly 15 percent below its 50-day moving average of $65.47. The relative strength index sits at 36.9, and the shares trade below all major moving averages. Year to date, however, the stock is still up 51 percent — a reminder that the recent slide follows a substantial run.

Analysts Hold Their Ground

Wall Street’s verdict is more measured than the tape suggests. Berenberg initiated coverage on September 2 with a Buy rating and an $83 price target, while Bank of America trimmed its target from $115 to $110 a day earlier but maintained its Buy recommendation. Both firms see meaningful upside from current levels, even as near-term momentum favors the bears.

New Business Keeps Flowing

Contract wins continued through August, reinforcing the operational narrative. On August 17, Rocket Lab was selected for the $981 million NITE-STAR program with the US Space Force for test infrastructure, followed a day later by inclusion in the military’s Space Data Network Consortium. Viasat also chose Rocket Lab to supply the Lightning-GEO satellite bus for a protected tactical communications mission, and on August 16 the company successfully launched eight satellite platforms for MDA Space.

The Electron manifest remains full: Thursday’s mission was the 15th launch of the year, and Synspective — a customer with a perfect track record across every Rocket Lab flight — has 16 additional launches booked through 2030. That reliability is itself a form of currency in an industry where a single failure can cost millions and scare off clients for years.

Neutron Progress Continues

Development of the larger Neutron rocket is advancing on schedule. First-stage tank manufacturing remains on track for delivery to the launch site in the fourth quarter of 2026, though the exact launch date depends on first-stage qualification and additional testing later this year.

The central question hanging over Rocket Lab isn’t whether the company can execute — it has demonstrated that repeatedly. It’s whether the market will eventually reward that consistency with a higher multiple, or whether the Iridium integration must first prove it won’t become a drag on the combined entity. For now, the gap between what Rocket Lab is achieving and what its stock price reflects remains the defining feature of this investment story.