The upcoming holiday shopping season is poised to become a landmark period for artificial intelligence in retail, according to fresh projections from Adobe. The software company anticipates unprecedented consumer adoption of AI tools during the critical November-December shopping window, with AI-driven website traffic expected to surge by 520%.
Record-Breaking Online Sales Forecast
Adobe Analytics projects U.S. online sales will reach $253.4 billion between November 1 and December 31, 2025, representing a 5.3% year-over-year increase. These figures emerge from the examination of more than one trillion website visits and 100 million unique products across 18 merchandise categories.
While the retail sector continues to demonstrate resilience, growth is expected to moderate compared to last year’s 8.7% expansion. Economic uncertainties, including concerns about tariffs and fluctuating consumer confidence, are contributing factors to this more conservative projection.
Consumer Embrace of AI Shopping Assistants
The dramatic rise in AI utilization marks a fundamental shift in how consumers approach holiday shopping. Following an extraordinary 1,300% increase in the previous year, the anticipated 520% growth in AI-assisted traffic underscores the technology’s accelerating integration into the retail experience.
Consumer behavior research reveals extensive plans to leverage artificial intelligence:
– 53% of U.S. shoppers intend to use AI for product research
– 40% will rely on AI-generated recommendations
– 36% plan to employ AI tools to identify bargains
– 30% will seek gift inspiration through AI interfaces
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The ten-day period leading up to Thanksgiving is expected to see particularly intense AI engagement, with notable activity in toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care products.
Mobile Shopping and Payment Evolution
Mobile commerce continues its upward trajectory, with Adobe forecasting that 56.1% of all online holiday purchases will be completed through mobile devices—establishing a new industry record. This represents significant growth from the 40% mobile commerce share recorded in 2020.
Alternative payment methods are also gaining substantial ground. “Buy Now, Pay Later” services are projected to generate $20.2 billion in sales, an 11% increase over previous levels. Cyber Monday alone is expected to see $1.04 billion processed through these payment platforms.
Strategic Implications for Adobe
These projections highlight Adobe’s expanding role as a critical data provider for the retail industry. The company’s analytics platform delivers essential insights to the majority of top-100 online retailers, informing decisions regarding inventory management, pricing strategies, and marketing campaigns.
The AI-driven transformation of consumer shopping behavior may further strengthen Adobe’s subscription-based business model. As retailers increasingly depend on data-informed decision-making—especially during high-revenue periods like the holiday season—demand for comprehensive analytics solutions continues to grow.
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