The advertising technology sector has seen one of its former high-fliers face significant headwinds. Over the past year, shares of The Trade Desk have endured a painful decline, trading approximately 68% below their 52-week peak. This substantial drop has prompted several major financial institutions to reassess their outlook, resulting in a wave of price target reductions. While most maintain their existing ratings, the central debate has shifted from hopes of a near-term rebound to a more fundamental question: can the company reaccelerate its growth rate beginning in 2025?
A Series of Downward Revisions
The latest adjustments are part of a broader trend of analysts recalibrating their models. At the start of the week, two prominent firms made significant cuts.
- UBS maintained its “Buy” recommendation but slashed its price target by 39%, from $82 to $50.
- Bank of America confirmed its “Underperform” stance while reducing its target from $49 to $40.
Stephen Ju of UBS cited a more cautious view on the fourth-quarter results of advertising-funded companies as the rationale. He noted that while ad spending recovered in November and December following a weak October tied to the U.S. government shutdown, the magnitude of positive surprises appeared limited. The firm remains optimistic on the stock but has clearly scaled back its valuation assumptions.
Bank of America expressed deeper skepticism. Although it anticipates The Trade Desk’s Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA will meet its forecasts, the firm highlighted several concerns:
* A projected slowdown in revenue growth for 2025.
* Concurrent changes within the company’s executive leadership.
* Increasing competitive pressures.
BofA characterized the investment thesis as a “show me” story, suggesting it would need to see revenue growth reaccelerate by 2026 before adopting a more constructive view.
These recent updates follow earlier cuts from other analysts. On January 8, 2026, Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its target from $52 to $43, keeping a “Neutral” rating. Just days before, on January 5, Guggenheim’s Michael Morris reduced his target from $55 to $50 but reiterated a “Buy.” Morris pointed out that the stock now trades at valuation multiples—based on sales and OIBDA—below its peers, presenting an opportunity if the company can exceed the currently projected 16% revenue growth for 2026.
The collective message from Wall Street is clear: the era of aggressive price targets has passed. While some analysts still see potential at these lower valuation levels, any upside is firmly contingent on a demonstrable return to faster growth.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying The Trade Desk?
Stock Performance and Management Reshuffle
The share price trajectory reflects the challenging environment. Having lost nearly 68% of its value over twelve months, the stock remains far below its 52-week high of $118.90. However, a recent closing price of $36.82 sits noticeably above the twelve-month low of $30.80, indicating some stabilization. The shares are up roughly 4% on a weekly basis and trade several percentage points above the 50-day moving average. Yet, with a considerable gap to the 200-day line, it is too early to declare a sustained trend reversal.
Adding to the uncertainty is a significant overhaul of the company’s leadership in 2025. The Trade Desk has appointed new executives to several key roles, including Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer, and, most recently in October 2025, Chief Revenue Officer (Anders Mortensen). Such sweeping changes can inject new energy but often create near-term questions about strategic direction. Market observers will closely monitor whether the new team can deliver measurable operational improvements in coming quarters, particularly regarding growth momentum and profitability.
Upcoming Earnings: A Critical Test
All eyes are on the company’s forthcoming fourth-quarter 2025 results, scheduled for release on February 18, 2026. Current consensus estimates include:
* Q4 Revenue: Approximately $841 million (matching management’s guidance for at least $840 million).
* Q4 EPS: $0.34 (down from $0.59 in the prior-year period).
For the full year 2025, analysts expect revenue of $2.89 billion, representing growth of just over 18%. Looking ahead to 2026, projections call for $3.35 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $2.08.
The management commentary accompanying the results will be scrutinized for updates on two strategic fronts:
* The Kokai Platform: The ongoing transition to this new platform is considered strategically vital. The key will be whether the company can demonstrate that Kokai is driving increased revenue momentum and customer value.
* International Expansion: The international segment, currently accounting for about 13% of total revenue, is growing faster than the domestic market. Any guidance on how this share might meaningfully increase in the medium term could become a crucial pillar of the long-term growth narrative.
In summary, The Trade Desk approaches a pivotal reporting date. The mid-February figures and the outlook for 2026 must convincingly show that the combination of new leadership, the Kokai platform rollout, and international expansion is sufficient to reignite the company’s slowed growth engine, thereby challenging the more skeptical price targets now prevailing on Wall Street.
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