Apple Faces Potential Multi-Billion Dollar Setback in India

While Apple stands on the verge of a landmark achievement—potentially dethroning Samsung as the world’s top smartphone vendor by volume next year—this potential victory is shadowed by a significant legal challenge emerging from India. The looming dispute threatens to impose a colossal financial penalty on the tech behemoth, causing investors to question whether this legal hurdle could stall the stock’s positive momentum.

Internal Efficiency and Market Confidence

Amidst the external legal pressures, Apple is taking internal measures to bolster profitability. In a move considered unusual for the company, it has initiated targeted job cuts within its sales division. Reports indicate that teams handling large corporate accounts and government contracts are primarily affected. Although the number of employees impacted is relatively small compared to the overall workforce, this action signals a clear intent to streamline operations and eliminate redundant structures.

Market observers, however, continue to express confidence in the company’s prospects. Analysts from firms like Robert W. Baird have reaffirmed their “Buy” rating, pointing to the strength of Apple’s services business and the anticipated wave of new hardware. The stock has demonstrated resilience in the face of these mixed developments, currently trading around €240 and remaining within striking distance of its 52-week high of €245.35.

A $38 Billion Legal Threat

The center of the storm is located far from Apple’s Cupertino headquarters, in New Delhi. The company has filed a petition with the Delhi High Court challenging the constitutionality of recent amendments to Indian competition law. The core of the dispute is a critical change: the Competition Commission of India (CCI) now holds the authority to levy fines based on a company’s global turnover, rather than just its relevant domestic revenue.

The stakes for Apple are extraordinarily high. According to court documents, the corporation faces a potential penalty of up to $38 billion. This staggering figure is equivalent to 10% of its worldwide revenue from the past three fiscal years. Apple’s legal team has labeled the 2024 legislative change “arbitrary, irrational, and unconstitutional,” especially due to concerns over its potential retroactive application. This legal battle stems from an ongoing investigation into App Store fee practices that began in 2021. A hearing is scheduled for December 3rd—a date investors would be wise to note.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Apple?

Impending Market Leadership Shift

Simultaneously, market data points toward a dramatic shift in Apple’s core business. For the first time since 2011, 2025 could see Apple surpass Samsung to become the global leader in smartphone shipments.

Researchers at Counterpoint provide the following projections for the coming year:
* Apple: 243 million units sold (19.4% market share).
* Samsung: 235 million units (18.7% market share).

This optimistic outlook is fueled by expectations for the iPhone 17 series and a predicted “super-cycle” of upgrades from users who purchased their devices during the pandemic. Despite operating in a saturated global market, Apple continues to demonstrate growth, driven by effective inventory management and sustained demand within the premium device segment.

Investors are now left to balance two powerful narratives: the long-term growth potential driven by the iPhone 17 against the immediate, multi-billion dollar risk presented by the Indian legal case.