$112 Oil, Zero Cuts, and the Market That Refuses to Break
Dear readers, On Friday we wrote that the Fed had effectively admitted it cannot narrow the range of plausible outcomes—that...
Smuggled Servers, a $5.7 Trillion Expiry, and the Fed’s Vanishing Exit
Dear readers, On Wednesday we wrote that Jerome Powell's press conference was not about the rate decision—it was about whether...
PPI Shock, $109 Brent, and the Afternoon Powell Has No Good Answers
Dear readers, Yesterday we told you the equity market's composure rested on a bet that demanded near-perfect execution from policymakers,...
The Dip Buyers, the $27 Billion AI Deal, and Powell’s Wednesday Reckoning
Dear readers, On Saturday we closed with a stark observation: Jerome Powell walks into this week's FOMC meeting with no...
From $100 Oil to a 0.7% Economy: The Week the Fed Lost Its Playbook
Dear readers, On Thursday we wrote that the S&P 500's composure rested on a foundation of macroeconomic data that was...
400 Million Barrels, a $100 Handle, and the Market’s Dangerous Calm
Dear readers, Yesterday we wrote that clean February inflation data cannot insulate a central bank from a March energy crisis...
Sixteen Vessels, a $93 Handle, and the Physical Cost of the AI Boom
Dear readers, Yesterday we wrote that the late-session rally bought American markets a reprieve but not clarity—and that clarity would...
Triple Digits, a Late-Session Reversal, and AI’s Quiet Trickle-Down
Dear readers, On Saturday, we closed with a blunt forecast: when futures opened Sunday evening, crude was the only chart...
92,000 Jobs Lost, Drones Over AWS, and the Stagflation Reckoning
Dear readers, On Thursday, we warned that Washington's dual mission—prosecuting a military conflict while stabilizing the energy markets that conflict...
Crude’s $84 Handle, Broadcom’s Hundred-Billion Bet, and the Warsh Wildcard
Dear readers, Yesterday we asked how long Washington could sustain its dual role as warfighter and market stabilizer. Twenty-four hours...
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