Copper Takes Center Stage in Barrick’s Strategic Evolution

Barrick Gold Corporation is undergoing a significant strategic realignment. As its traditional gold mining operations face mounting cost pressures, a major copper expansion project in Zambia is moving to the forefront, fundamentally altering the investment narrative surrounding the global miner.

Valuation Discount Amid Rising Earnings Forecasts

Despite cost headwinds in its gold segment, Barrick’s earnings outlook is strengthening. Analyst consensus points to approximately 50 percent profit growth expected for 2026 compared to the prior year, with a further 19 percent increase anticipated for 2027. Trading at a forward P/E ratio of 12.4, the company’s shares carry a discount of nearly eight percent relative to the industry average. This valuation also sits below those of peers Agnico Eagle, Newmont, and Kinross Gold.

The stock has delivered a substantial gain of about 61 percent over the past six months, significantly outperforming both the relevant sector index and the S&P 500. Currently priced at 52.01 CAD, the equity trades roughly 19 percent below its 50-day moving average but remains well above its 200-day average, indicating the persistence of a longer-term upward trend.

Gold Segment Feels the Squeeze

Barrick’s gold business is presenting a mixed picture. The company’s All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC), a comprehensive mining cost metric, increased by around nine percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 to USD 1,581 per ounce. For the full year 2025, AISC averaged USD 1,637 per ounce, marking a ten percent rise. Guidance for 2026 projects these costs to land between USD 1,760 and USD 1,950 per ounce.

This cost escalation is attributed to factors including lower ore grades, more expensive operational supplies, and the restart of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto complex following the return of control in December 2025. Barrick’s gold production forecast for 2026 is set at 2.90 to 3.25 million ounces, slightly below the actual output of 3.26 million ounces achieved in 2025.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick Mining?

Lumwana Expansion Accelerates Ahead of Schedule

The strategic pivot is being driven by the accelerated progress of the USD 2 billion expansion at the Lumwana mine in Zambia. Deliveries of the mine fleet destined for 2026 have already commenced, putting the project ahead of its initial timeline.

The expansion is of considerable strategic importance. Production capacity is slated to rise to over 200 million tonnes per annum by 2026, scaling up to approximately 300 million tonnes by 2030, and reaching 350 million tonnes by 2039. This progression would position Lumwana as Africa’s largest mine by total material moved. The project is expected to yield an average annual copper production of 240,000 tonnes and extend the mine’s operational life by 17 years to 2057.

By 2030, copper is projected to contribute between 30 and 40 percent of Barrick’s group EBITDA. This deliberate strategic positioning aims to capitalize on burgeoning demand driven by the global transition to electric vehicles and the expansion of artificial intelligence-powered data centers.

The Path to a Potential Re-rating

The critical question for Barrick’s share performance in coming quarters is whether growth in copper can sufficiently offset margin compression in the gold business. With the Lumwana ramp-up beginning in 2026 and a planned dividend framework—which allocates 50 percent of free cash flow to shareholders through a fixed quarterly dividend and a variable annual component—the company is building the structural case for a potential market re-rating.