Hydrogen Stocks Diverge: Plug Power’s Surge Contrasts with Nel’s Struggle

The clean hydrogen sector witnessed a tale of two extremes this past week. U.S. specialist Plug Power (PLUG) experienced a monumental surge, while Norwegian electrolyzer manufacturer Nel ASA (NEL) saw only marginal movement. This presents a study in contrasts: one company rocketing higher on explosive momentum, the other weighed down by operational challenges and diminishing order backlogs. What is driving this stark performance gap?

Financial Health and Market Positioning

A closer look at the fundamentals reveals two firms at very different stages. Both companies are currently unprofitable, a common situation in the capital-intensive hydrogen industry, but their strategic paths and recent results diverge significantly.

Plug Power is executing an ambitious, capital-heavy strategy focused on building a comprehensive hydrogen ecosystem. This includes everything from production and storage to delivery, supplementing its core business in fuel cells and electrolyzers. While this vertical integration could be a long-term advantage, it currently results in significant cash consumption and negative gross margins. On a positive note, the company reported Q2 2025 revenue of $174 million, a 21% year-over-year increase, and improved its gross margin from a disastrous -92% to -31%. Its primary challenge remains a precarious financial position and a reliance on external financing.

In contrast, Nel ASA concentrates on its core competency: manufacturing alkaline and PEM electrolyzers. Its long-standing technical expertise is a clear asset. However, its recent quarterly figures are concerning. Q2 2025 revenue plummeted 48% to 174 million NOK. More alarmingly, its order backlog shrank by 40% compared to the previous year, indicating potential serious issues in securing new business in a highly competitive market.

Financial Metrics at a Glance
| Metric | Plug Power Inc. | Nel ASA |
| :— | :— | :— |
| Market Capitalization | ~$3.35 Billion | ~$0.48 Billion |
| Q2 2025 Revenue | $174 Million (+21% YoY) | 174 Million NOK (-48% YoY) |
| Q2 2025 Profitability | Gross Margin: -31% | EBITDA: -86 Million NOK |
| Order Backlog | | 1,249 Million NOK (-40% YoY) |

A Week of Wildly Different Trading

The stock charts from the first week of October tell two completely different stories. Plug Power’s shares catapulted to a new 52-week high, recording a breathtaking gain of approximately 66%. This rally was ignited on October 3rd when the analyst firm H.C. Wainwright dramatically doubled its price target on the stock from $3 to $7, the most bullish target on Wall Street. The analysts cited rising power prices, which enhance the competitiveness of green hydrogen compared to grey hydrogen. The rally was further fueled by the company’s first delivery of a 10-MW electrolyzer to a major European project.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Plug Power?

This buying frenzy was intensified by a massive short squeeze, as a substantial portion of Plug Power’s shares had been sold short. Trading volume exploded as a result.

Nel ASA’s performance was far more subdued. The Norwegian firm posted slight weekly gains of around 3.4%, but the broader picture remains bleak, with the stock down over 45% year-to-date. Disappointing half-year 2025 results, marked by significant revenue declines and a shrinking order book, continue to pressure the share price.

Performance Comparison
| Period | Plug Power (PLUG) | Nel ASA (NEL) |
| :— | :— | :— |
| 1 Week | ~ +66.0% | ~ +3.4% |
| Year-to-Date | ~ +65.0% | ~ -40.0% |
| 1 Year | ~ +78.0% | ~ -48.0% |

Divergent Analyst Views and Investment Cases

Market experts are deeply divided on the prospects for these two hydrogen players. The investment thesis for each could not be more different.

For Plug Power, the consensus rating sits at “Hold,” but price targets are wildly scattered, ranging from a pessimistic $0.50 to H.C. Wainwright’s optimistic $7. The average target of approximately $2.09 to $2.22 sits well below the current trading price, indicating that many analysts are skeptical of the sustainability of the recent rally. From a technical perspective, the stock is clearly overbought with an RSI above 70, suggesting a potential correction is due. Plug Power represents a classic high-risk, high-reward opportunity, suitable only for investors betting on the successful execution of its integrated model and a future path to profitability.

Regarding Nel ASA, the analyst consensus leans toward “Hold” or “Sell.” The average 12-month price targets, ranging from 2.23 to 2.53 NOK, offer little apparent upside, with some experts forecasting further declines. Technically, the stock is trading below its key long-term moving averages, a bearish signal. The investment case for Nel is that of a potential turnaround story. Investors are betting on its strong technological foundation, expanded production capacity of 1 GW at its Herøya facility, and the strategic backing of its largest shareholder, Samsung E&A. The wager is that the current order slump is temporary and the company will soon secure major contracts as global hydrogen infrastructure expands. This is a contrarian approach requiring patience, with the risk that the declining orders signal a permanent loss of market share.