Natera Shares Approach Critical Earnings Test

Natera Inc. finds itself at a pivotal moment as it prepares to release third-quarter 2025 financial results after market close on Thursday. The diagnostics company’s shares, which recently reached an unprecedented peak of $199.04, face intense scrutiny from investors awaiting what could be the year’s most significant trading session. While the stock last settled at $198.93, early indications suggest a modest retreat to around $196.81 at the opening bell.

Market Expectations and Recent Performance

Analysts project quarterly revenue of $514.77 million for Natera, representing a 17.06% year-over-year increase. This optimism persists despite the company’s previous quarterly performance, where it reported a loss of $0.74 per share while simultaneously delivering impressive revenue growth of 32.2% to $546.6 million.

The company’s recent strategic moves have contributed to positive sentiment. Just one day before its earnings announcement, Natera revealed an expansion of its Fetal-Focus test to cover 20 genes. Scheduled for launch in the fourth quarter, this enhancement employs proprietary LinkedSNP technology and promises to significantly strengthen the company’s women’s health portfolio.

Diverging Analyst Perspectives

Market experts display mixed reactions toward Natera’s prospects. BTIG raised its price target from $200 to $210 while maintaining a “Buy” recommendation. Similarly, Piper Sandler confirmed its “Overweight” rating with a $220 price objective. Both firms cited encouraging study data and the company’s first-mover advantage in key diagnostic segments.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Natera?

Contrasting this bullish stance, Zacks Research downgraded the stock from “Hold” to “Strong Sell” on October 20. Overall, the investment community remains cautiously optimistic, with 22 analysts collectively rating the shares as “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $194.89.

Technical Position and Clinical Developments

Natera’s equity has demonstrated remarkable strength, climbing 59.4% over the past twelve months and advancing 27.75% in the last six-month period. Recent positive data from the IMvigor011 study showed a 41% improvement in overall survival for bladder cancer patients, contributing to the stock’s upward trajectory.

Technical indicators currently flash buy signals from both short-term and long-term moving averages. Market technicians suggest that a decisive break above the $199.79 resistance level could trigger the next significant upward movement.

• Revenue Growth (Trailing 12 Months): 44.38%
• Consensus Rating: Moderate Buy
• Next Catalyst: Q3 2025 Earnings Report on November 6

The central question facing investors is whether Natera can maintain its impressive revenue expansion while progressing toward sustainable profitability. Thursday’s earnings release may provide crucial clarity on this fundamental challenge.