Nintendo’s Cinematic Ambitions Fuel Analyst Optimism

A recent investment note from Seeking Alpha has cast a spotlight on Nintendo, issuing a buy recommendation for the company’s shares on February 26, 2026. The analysis highlights a particularly compelling catalyst: the potential for the planned Mario and Zelda feature films to individually boost annual profits by more than 20 percent. This projection arrives even as the stock has experienced recent softness, with experts asserting that the underlying business fundamentals remain robust.

Long-Term Console Growth Amidst Short-Term Headwinds

The global outlook for the gaming console market presents a mixed picture depending on the timeframe. Research firm TrendForce anticipates a sector contraction of 4.4 percent for 2026. However, a longer-term perspective reveals a more favorable trajectory. According to Bonafide Research, the worldwide console gaming sector is projected to expand from $22.96 billion in 2023 to $30 billion by 2029, representing a compound annual growth rate of 6.57 percent. North America continues to hold its position as the largest single market, while the Asia-Pacific region is expected to see the most vigorous growth. Competition across stationary, mobile, and hybrid console formats remains intense.

Switch 2 Prospects and Supply Chain Resilience

Market expectations for the successor to the Switch, tentatively referred to as the Switch 2, continue to run high. Analysts forecast strong sales figures and significant pent-up demand, which could grant the new console an extended product lifecycle. Nevertheless, supply chain complexities cloud the near-term outlook. On February 25, NVIDIA’s Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress cautioned that shortages of gaming chips are likely to persist through the end of 2026. This constraint is primarily driven by enormous demand for AI data center memory chips, which is consuming manufacturing capacity and elevating prices across the sector.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nintendo?

Despite this industry-wide challenge, Nintendo is positioned to be less affected than some competitors. The analysis suggests that the company’s existing supply agreements and its considerable pricing power should help mitigate the risk posed by rising memory costs.

Divergent Market Forecasts and Competitive Landscape

The console market’s future is a tale of two timelines. While 2026 may see a dip, the subsequent years promise expansion. The competitive battle between different hardware formats—from traditional home consoles to portable and hybrid devices—shows no signs of abating. This dynamic environment underscores the importance of Nintendo’s multi-pronged strategy, which now prominently includes leveraging its iconic intellectual property through major motion pictures.