Novo Nordisk’s stock has entered a dramatic downturn, shedding more than half its value since the start of the year and currently trading at its lowest point in four years. Panicked investors are exiting their positions following a series of negative developments, though a surprise fast-track application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration offers a potential lifeline. The critical question for the market is whether the severe sell-off represents an overreaction or signals deeper troubles ahead for the pharmaceutical giant.
Unexpected FDA Submission Sparks Hope
In a strategic countermove, Novo Nordisk’s management has submitted an urgent application to the FDA seeking approval for a new, higher-dose 7.2 mg version of its weight-loss injection, Wegovy. This submission, based on compelling data from the “STEP-UP” clinical trial, could serve as a near-term catalyst for the beleaguered stock. Key findings from the study include:
- Enhanced Efficacy: Patients receiving the 7.2 mg dose achieved an average weight loss of 20.7% over a 72-week period, outperforming the 17.5% loss seen with the standard dose.
- Favorable Safety Profile: Contrary to expectations, the incidence of serious adverse events was lower in the high-dose cohort than in the group receiving the standard formulation.
A regulatory decision is anticipated within one to two months, placing a critical juncture on the horizon for the company.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
Mounting Challenges for the Danish Pharma Leader
The pressure on Novo Nordisk intensified on Friday, November 28, 2025, when Svenska Handelsbanken downgraded its rating on the stock to “Sell.” The bank simultaneously slashed its price target to 285 DKK, a move that fueled further selling pressure. This growing analyst pessimism stems from a confluence of significant headwinds:
- Clinical Trial Failure: The company recently conceded that its Phase 3 “Evoke” trial for an oral semaglutid formulation failed to meet its primary objective of slowing the progression of Alzheimer’s disease.
- Pricing Pressures: In the United States, ongoing Medicare negotiations threaten to substantially reduce the list price of Ozempic, a key revenue driver, with potential cuts of up to 71%.
A Deeply Divided Analyst Community
The current market sentiment is characterized by extreme uncertainty, reflected in sharply conflicting analyst opinions. The bearish stance from Handelsbanken, which warns of further pipeline risks and potential setbacks, stands in direct contrast to the outlook from other institutions. For instance, Deutsche Bank Research recently reaffirmed its “Buy” recommendation, maintaining a price target of 475 DKK. The optimistic view hinges on Novo Nordisk’s continued dominance in the GLP-1 drug market and promising early data for its new drug candidate, Amycretin.
With the stock’s value having been cut in half since the beginning of the year, investors are facing a severe test of conviction. The upcoming FDA verdict on the new Wegovy dosage will be a decisive factor in determining whether the stock can stage a recovery or if the prevailing negative trend will continue.
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