Rare Earth Miner MP Materials Gains Bullish Outlook with 156% Upside Potential

A prominent Wall Street firm has dramatically increased its price projection for MP Materials Corp., signaling exceptionally strong confidence in the rare earth producer’s strategic direction and growth prospects.

In early September, investment firm DA Davidson maintained its Buy recommendation on MP Materials while taking the extraordinary step of more than doubling its 12-month price target. The target surged from $32 to $82 per share. This adjustment followed the company’s announcement of significant new government and commercial partnerships that are expected to fundamentally reshape its business model.

Based on a September 5th closing price of $62.75, the new target implies a potential upside of approximately 31% from current levels. The stock has already demonstrated remarkable performance, delivering a staggering 451% return to investors over the preceding twelve months.

Defense Department Partnership as Game Changer

The catalyst for DA Davidson’s upgraded assessment stems from a transformative public-private partnership established with the U.S. Department of Defense in July 2025. This multi-billion dollar agreement includes crucial price guarantees for all neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) output—essential rare earth elements used in permanent magnets for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and defense applications.

In a strategically significant move, MP Materials has completely halted all concentrate shipments to China. This fundamental shift in strategy aims to establish a complete domestic supply chain for rare earth elements, directly supporting broader U.S. initiatives to reduce dependence on Chinese processing. China currently controls an estimated 90% of global refining capacity for these critical materials.

The company’s NdPr production is already scaling rapidly, reaching a record 597 tons in the second quarter of 2025. This figure represents a substantial 119% year-over-year increase.

Expansion Into Magnet Manufacturing Gains Momentum

DA Davidson identified the company’s advancing magnet production capabilities as a central value driver. MP Materials is currently expanding its existing facility in Fort Worth, Texas, and has outlined plans for a new “10X” manufacturing plant that would significantly boost domestic production capacity.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying MP Materials?

Further validating its vertical integration strategy, the company secured a $500 million partnership with Apple in July focused on recycled rare earth magnets. This agreement includes development plans for a commercial recycling operation at MP Materials’ Mountain Pass facility in California.

Strong Balance Sheet Supports Ambitious Growth

The analysis highlighted MP Materials’ fortified financial position following recent capital infusions. The company exited the second quarter with nearly $2 billion in cash reserves, a figure that precedes additional prepayments from the Apple partnership.

This robust liquidity provides substantial financial flexibility to pursue ambitious expansion plans without immediate concerns about shareholder dilution. Quarterly revenue jumped 84% to $57.4 million, driven primarily by increased NdPr sales volumes and improved pricing.

Execution and Market Risks Remain

Despite the overwhelmingly positive analyst assessment, certain risks persist. The company continues to report losses, with a second-quarter adjusted loss of $0.13 per share. Execution risks associated with its manufacturing expansion plans remain a concern.

The significant government involvement through the Defense Department partnership introduces political risk factors. Price volatility for rare earths continues to present market challenges, though the DoD price guarantee provides some downside protection.

The substantial 451% share price appreciation over the past year has also raised valuation questions, as investors appear to have already priced in much of the potential benefit from government partnerships and domestic supply chain advantages.

With one of Wall Street’s most optimistic price targets at $82, MP Materials remains squarely in focus as a potential primary beneficiary of U.S. efforts to secure domestic rare earth supplies amid ongoing geopolitical tensions with China.