The price of silver is consolidating after a historic surge that pushed it beyond $93 per ounce. This pause follows a significant political announcement from Washington concerning import tariffs, which temporarily removed risk premiums from the market. While some investors are capitalizing on profits, a substantial wave of buying from retail investors suggests confidence in the rally’s continuation.
Retail Investors Defy the Pullback
Despite the recent price dip, underlying demand remains strikingly robust. Data from Vanda Research indicates that approximately $921.8 million flowed into silver ETFs over the past 30 days. In fact, Wednesday saw the second-largest single-day purchase volume from private investors since the “Silver Spike” event of 2021.
Market analysts interpret this activity not as speculative frenzy but as strategic accumulation. This trend is fundamentally driven by tangible industrial demand. Sectors such as solar power, which consumes over a quarter of global supply, alongside growing needs from AI infrastructure and electric vehicles, are creating a persistent market deficit. Annual supply is estimated to lag behind demand by 95 to 200 million ounces.
Political Moves Temporarily Curb Momentum
The sharp ascent of the precious metal encountered a sudden interruption mid-week. The primary catalyst was an announcement from the US administration under Donald Trump, which opted to forgo immediate import tariffs on critical minerals for now, favoring negotiations instead. This news, coupled with reports of de-escalation in geopolitical tensions with Iran, prompted profit-taking.
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Silver currently trades at $92.21, remaining close to the 52-week high of $93.19 set just on Wednesday. Given a year-to-date performance gain of 27.60%, market observers largely view the decline as a technical correction within an overheated market environment.
Structural Deficit Underpins Bullish Forecasts
The supply shortage is being further exacerbated by protectionist policies globally. While China has implemented export restrictions, the United States has now added silver to its official list of critical minerals. In this context, leading financial institutions are maintaining optimistic price projections.
Citigroup anticipates silver reaching $100 per ounce by March 2026. Bank of America analysts present an even more bullish case, suggesting peak scenarios where prices could exceed $300. The combination of a sustained structural deficit and unwavering retail demand is expected to provide continued support for the market. A decisive and sustained break above the psychologically significant $100 level could technically pave the way for these analyst targets.
Key Developments at a Glance:
- Price Consolidation: A pullback following a new all-time high of $93.19.
- Policy Shift: The US has postponed immediate import tariffs on critical minerals.
- Strong Retail Inflows: The second-strongest buying day by private investors since 2021.
- Persistent Deficit: Industrial demand has outstripped supply for five consecutive years.
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