Strategy Shares Find Relief as Index Inclusion Holds

A significant overhang has been lifted for Strategy, with the company retaining its place in major MSCI benchmarks. This development removes a key concern that had recently pressured the share price, though questions persist regarding the sustainability of this boost for a firm whose business model now orbits almost entirely around Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Holdings and Valuation Tensions

The company’s fundamental story remains tightly interwoven with the cryptocurrency market. Strategy continues to execute its Bitcoin acquisition strategy, now holding 673,783 Bitcoin—by far the largest known treasury holding of any publicly traded company. These purchases follow the firm’s expanded “42/42 Plan,” utilizing equity and debt issuances to fund further acquisitions. Consequently, the share price exhibits a strong correlation with Bitcoin’s value, which itself is trading near $93,000 following a correction in late 2025, contributing significantly to the stock’s volatility.

Trading at $160.94 as of Thursday, the shares reflect a substantial risk premium, having declined nearly 50% over a twelve-month period. They continue to trade at a notable premium to the estimated Net Asset Value (NAV). Proponents argue this premium is justified by the company’s unique ability to generate additional “Bitcoin yield” through capital market activities. Critics, however, contend the valuation has diverged sharply from traditional metrics for a software company, leaving it exposed to two primary drivers: Bitcoin’s price trajectory and regulatory sentiment, both of which increase susceptibility to abrupt price swings.

MSCI Decision Alleviates Forced Selling Threat

The immediate catalyst for the recent price movement was a decision by index provider MSCI. The firm concluded a widely watched consultation on whether to exclude so-called “Digital Asset Treasury Companies” (DATCOs)—firms with substantial crypto holdings on their balance sheets—from its Global Investable Market Indexes.

On Tuesday, MSCI decided against the proposal. This outcome is critical for Strategy, as exclusion would have triggered massive forced selling by passive funds tracking these benchmarks. Estimates suggested between $2.8 and $10 billion in share disposals were possible, representing a considerable liquidity risk. The market reaction was swift: shares advanced significantly on Wednesday, recouping a portion of prior losses, before stabilizing on Thursday as the initial relief rally subsided and investors assessed the longer-term implications.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Strategy?

MSCI clarified, however, that the matter is not permanently settled. While Strategy is safe for the upcoming index review in February 2026, a “broader consultation process” regarding non-operating companies will follow, maintaining a degree of regulatory uncertainty.

Outlook: Financials, Technicals, and Strategic Path

With the acute MSCI risk subsiding, focus returns to operational and market factors. Strategy is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 3, 2026. The current analyst consensus forecasts a loss per share of approximately -$0.08, driven largely by fluctuations in digital asset value adjustments and interest expenses from the aggressive financing strategy.

From a technical perspective, the stock is attempting to establish a base in the $160 to $165 range. The current price sits slightly above the 50-day moving average of $156.90 but remains well below the 200-day average of $271.02. The near-term resistance level around $172 was tested during Wednesday’s rally. However, a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 84.2 signals an overbought condition, elevating the risk of a pullback.

Strategically, the MSCI decision remains paramount. Continued inclusion in the indices ensures ongoing access to substantial institutional liquidity. This affords management the latitude to pursue its dual strategy of enterprise software and Bitcoin accumulation, even as the market increasingly anchors the company’s valuation to its crypto component rather than traditional software metrics.