The opening weeks of 2026 have presented a picture of deceptive calm for XRP. Beneath the surface of stable prices, a significant supply-side transformation is underway, driven by a fundamental shift in investor behavior and sustained institutional accumulation.
A Shift in Investor Strategy and Exchange Balances
On-chain metrics reveal a striking trend: the volume of XRP tokens held on centralized exchanges has plummeted to a multi-year low of approximately 1.6 billion. This drawdown signals that holders are moving assets into private, cold storage wallets, indicating a preference for long-term custody over immediate liquidity for potential sales.
This tightening supply was further demonstrated by the market’s handling of the routine monthly release of 1 billion XRP from escrow accounts at the start of the period. Rather than flooding the market, this influx was absorbed almost immediately. A significant portion was either returned to escrow or acquired off-exchange via over-the-counter (OTC) desks by large investors, thereby avoiding any downward pressure on the public spot price.
The Institutional Catalyst: ETFs and Legal Clarity
A pivotal change in the demand profile followed the resolution of the SEC lawsuit in August 2025. The subsequent approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has opened a steady conduit for capital from the traditional finance sector.
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The five active XRP ETFs now collectively manage assets exceeding $1.25 billion. Notably, even during the quiet market period in late December, these funds experienced consistent net inflows without a single day of outflows. This pattern suggests professional investors are increasingly viewing XRP as a strategic, long-term infrastructure play, particularly for emerging use cases like real-world asset (RWA) tokenization on the XRP Ledger.
Technical Analysis Points to a Potential Breakout
Despite these robust fundamental developments, XRP’s price, currently at $1.85, has yet to reflect this momentum. The asset is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, a technical formation that typically precedes a period of heightened volatility.
Market analysts are closely monitoring the key support zone between $1.80 and $1.82. A successful defense of this level would maintain the bullish scenario established in late 2025. On the upside, resistance is seen near $1.95, a level reinforced by the 30-day moving average.
The first quarter of 2026 is likely to be defined by the tension between this technical support at $1.80 and the fundamental reality of shrinking supply. Should persistent ETF-driven demand continue to meet a diminishing pool of exchange-held tokens, the current phase of consolidation could conclude abruptly.
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