PayPal’s NFL Deal and Venmo Surge Set the Stage for a Pivotal Earnings Report

PayPal is entering one of its most consequential weeks in recent memory. The payments giant has locked in a high-profile partnership with the National Football League, its stablecoin is gaining serious traction, and its Venmo unit is posting double-digit growth. Yet the stock is trading roughly 14% below where it started the year, and the market is waiting for proof that these initiatives can translate into a turnaround.

The company will deliver its first-quarter results on May 5, the first earnings report under new CEO Enrique Lores. Analysts expect earnings per share of $1.27, a slight dip from the $1.33 recorded in the same period last year. Revenue is projected at around $8.05 billion, with management having guided for a modest uptick on a currency-adjusted basis.

Venmo Takes Center Stage

The Venmo platform, which now counts over 100 million users in the US, has become PayPal’s brightest spot. In mid-April, the company expanded its “Stash” rewards program, offering users up to 5% cashback at select merchants. Major brands including Sephora, Ulta, and Taco Bell have joined the network, helping drive transaction volumes and monthly active accounts into double-digit growth territory.

The NFL deal, announced in late April, adds another dimension. PayPal is now the league’s official payment partner, enabling fans to send and split money within the NFL ecosystem for games across the US and nine international fixtures. The new app integrates PayPal directly with Venmo, creating a seamless link between the two platforms.

Crypto Ambitions Gain Momentum

On the digital assets front, PayPal’s US dollar-pegged stablecoin PYUSD has expanded to 70 countries. Its market capitalization has quintupled over the past year to $4.1 billion, with merchants now receiving settlements in minutes rather than days. Partnerships with Visa and YouTube have reinforced the stablecoin’s credibility, though the broader crypto push remains a secondary story relative to the core payments business.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying PayPal?

Structural Headwinds Remain

Despite these bright spots, PayPal’s traditional checkout business—which still contributes more than half of the company’s profits—is under pressure. Macroeconomic headwinds and slower merchant adoption are squeezing margins in this segment. The stock’s forward price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 9 represents a steep discount to the industry average of about 17, reflecting the market’s skepticism.

The cautious tone on Wall Street is evident. Truist recently raised its price target to $45 but maintained a sell rating, while Bank of America holds a neutral stance with a $55 target. The consensus among analysts is “hold,” and the stock remains well below its 200-day moving average.

A $6 Billion Bet on the Future

Management has outlined plans for a $6 billion share buyback program, equivalent to roughly 14% of the company’s current market capitalization. Free cash flow for the full year 2026 is expected to exceed $6 billion, though lower interest rates and elevated investment costs are tempering expectations.

The May 5 earnings call will be Lores’s first major test since taking the helm. He has promised faster execution of the corporate strategy, and investors will be watching closely to see whether Venmo’s momentum and the NFL partnership can offset the structural weakness in the core checkout business. The question is whether these new initiatives are enough to keep users within PayPal’s ecosystem and stem the drift toward competitors like Apple Pay and Block.