BMW has quietly racked up more than 200 million kilometers in hands-free driving mode, a technological feat that underscores its lead in Level-2-Plus autonomy. Yet that achievement is doing little to halt the stock’s slide. The shares are trading at €67.88, barely above the fresh 52-week low of €67.36, and have lost nearly 30% since the start of the year.
The disconnect between operational milestones and market sentiment is stark. A recent EY analysis of the world’s largest carmakers lays bare the structural headwinds facing Germany’s automotive giants. For the first quarter of 2026, BMW, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz reported an average revenue decline of 4% and a profit plunge of 23%. The combined operating margin for the three fell to 4.6% — the weakest reading in a decade. US peers, by contrast, posted sharp profit gains over the same period.
Nowhere is the pain more acute than in China. Passenger vehicle sales in the domestic market sank 23.4% in May to 1.44 million units, with internal combustion engine models losing 41.8% year-on-year. BMW itself suffered a 16% drop in Chinese deliveries, and local rivals continue to eat into its market share. While Chinese exports surged 73% to roughly 809,000 vehicles, that statistic offers little comfort to a company whose fortunes depend heavily on the home market.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BMW?
The technical picture reinforces the bearish mood. The relative strength index has sunk to 23.9, deep in oversold territory, and the stock trades well below its 200-day moving average. A modest bright spot comes from the dividend front: DAX companies are distributing a record €56.7 billion, of which the auto sector accounts for about €9.6 billion. BMW has kept its payout more stable than rivals Mercedes-Benz or Volkswagen, which have been forced to cut deeper.
Analysts are not entirely throwing in the towel. JPMorgan reiterated its “Overweight” rating and 100-euro price target this week. Analyst Jose Asumendi expects a second-quarter operating margin for the auto division of 5%, slightly below the market consensus of 5.5%. Whether that forecast holds will depend on delivery data over the next few weeks.
Adding to the mix, the company is navigating a leadership transition. Milan Nedeljković took over as CEO from Oliver Zipse in the spring, inheriting a portfolio of challenges from US tariff risks to the China slowdown. One step already taken to shore up capital-market appeal: shareholders approved the conversion of preference shares into common stock at the May annual general meeting, a move that should simplify the capital structure and boost liquidity. For now, technological records may underpin BMW’s long-term story, but the near-term narrative hinges on stabilizing margins and arresting the slide in Asia.
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