ASML’s Social Pact Turns Redundancy Into Reassignment as Shares Flirt With Record

ASML shares surged toward an all-time high this week after the Dutch chip-equipment giant sealed a revised social plan with labor unions, vastly reducing the scale of planned job cuts. The stock hit €1,573.60 on Thursday, just a whisker below its fresh record of €1,580, adding nearly 59% since the start of the year. Investors cheered the clarity: a leaner, less bureaucratic company without the heavy cost of mass layoffs.

Fewer Pink Slips, More Internal Moves

The original restructuring announced in January 2026 targeted roughly 1,700 positions in the Netherlands and the United States — about 4% of the workforce. Under the new agreement with Dutch unions, that number could be cut in half. The focus has shifted from compulsory redundancies to internal reassignments, with affected employees given until May 2027 to find a new role within the company. Those who do leave will receive severance packages of up to €400,000.

The union FNV continues to push for zero compulsory layoffs. ASML spokesperson Monique Mols confirmed that all employees whose jobs are at risk will be informed by the end of June.

The cuts are concentrated in development, IT, and management layers. ASML identified an excess of coordination roles — project leaders, scrum masters, release train engineers, program managers — that accumulated during years of integration after acquisitions. Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen has argued the company became too complex, with staff spending too much time on process coordination instead of actual innovation.

Profitability Provides the Cover

This is no distress-driven downsizing. ASML’s first-quarter EBIT came in at €3.2 billion, 4% above analyst estimates. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between €36 billion and €40 billion, up from a previous range of €34 billion to €39 billion. Gross margin is expected to land between 51% and 53%.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?

The revenue lift is powered by surging demand from TSMC, Samsung, and other chip giants building out artificial-intelligence infrastructure. China’s share of ASML sales is slipping from 33% in 2025 to an estimated 20% in 2026, but the AI-driven orders from elsewhere more than fill the gap.

Analyst Targets Reach for €1,900

The Street has responded with a flurry of upgrades. JPMorgan reiterated its buy rating with a €1,921 price target, citing expanding margins and secular growth. Bank of America’s Didier Scemama lifted his target from €1,710 to the same €1,921 level, maintaining a buy. Barclays followed suit, raising its target to €1,900 with an “overweight” rating. Goldman Sachs boosted its revenue estimates for 2026 through 2030 by 6% to 10%, pointing to sustained demand for leading-edge chip nodes used in AI workloads.

ASML’s market capitalization has blown past $700 billion — the first European-listed company to reach that threshold. The stock now sits just 0.4% below its all-time high, with analysts suggesting the restructuring could unlock further operational leverage if executed smoothly.

By cutting coordination fat rather than core engineering muscle, ASML is positioning itself to sprint into the next wave of chip-making technology. The social pact buys time — and investor confidence.