Deutsche Telekom: Nearing Its 52-Week Low, the Stock Loses a Key Buyer Just as Merger Speculation Intensifies

Deutsche Telekom shares are treading dangerously close to their lowest point in a year, and the support they have enjoyed from a steady share repurchase program is about to vanish. The stock closed Friday at €26.31 — barely 2.3% above the 52-week trough struck on 22 June. Over the past 30 days, the equity has shed more than 10% of its value, and the year-to-date decline now stands at 5.6%.

The irony is that the underlying business is performing well. Organic revenue in the first quarter climbed 4.7% to €29.9 billion, while adjusted EBITDA after leasing rose 7.5% to €11.5 billion. Management responded by lifting full-year guidance: the group now expects adjusted EBITDA AL of around €47.5 billion and free cash flow after leasing of more than €19.8 billion. Fitch recently acknowledged that strength by upgrading the credit rating to A- with a stable outlook. Yet the stock has largely ignored these milestones.

A major source of the disconnect is the expiry of the current buyback tranche on 30 June. Since April, Deutsche Telekom has withdrawn roughly 17 million of its own shares from the market, spending up to €550 million in the process. With that tranche ending and no start date announced for the next phase, the stock loses a predictable buyer at a time when it could use one most.

Compounding the pressure is a swirl of speculation around the US subsidiary T-Mobile US, which now contributes nearly two-thirds of group revenue. The Wall Street Journal reported that CEO Tim Höttges is weighing a multinational holding structure that would merge Deutsche Telekom and T-Mobile US, allowing a dual listing in Europe and the United States. Adding to the uncertainty, rumours have circulated that SpaceX might be interested in acquiring T-Mobile US. The company has not confirmed either scenario.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?

Any such transaction would be complex. The German government and KfW together hold roughly 28% of Deutsche Telekom, giving Berlin a decisive voice. Minority shareholders in T-Mobile US would also need convincing, and many are wary of being exposed to the lower-margin European business. Until the board clarifies its intentions, the overhang is likely to persist.

Technically, the picture looks stretched. The relative strength index stands at 34.3, signalling an oversold condition that can sometimes precede a bounce. But with the stock trading about 9% below its 200-day moving average, the medium-term trend remains firmly negative.

The next potential catalyst is the second-quarter earnings report due on 6 August. Until then, investors must navigate a period without the buyback safety net and with a thicket of unanswered questions about the group’s corporate structure. For now, operational strength remains overshadowed by strategic uncertainty.