Hensoldt’s €63 Support Holds the Key After F126 Collapse Triggers 24% Rout

The steep sell-off in Hensoldt shares has brought the defence electronics group’s 52-week low within touching distance, yet the company’s record €9.8 billion order book paints a strikingly different picture of its underlying health. The stock closed Friday at €64.96, a modest 2% gain on the day, but that did little to stem a monthly decline of nearly 24% — a slide that began in earnest after the German defence ministry pulled the plug on the multibillion-euro F126 frigate programme.

The cancellation of the naval project hit Hensoldt particularly hard. The company had been a key supplier of sensors and electronics for the F126 class, and the decision wiped out a major long-term revenue stream from the Bundeswehr’s budget. Investors reacted instantly, driving the stock to a new year-low of €63.12 on 26 June. Since then, the shares have hovered just 2.92% above that trough, making the €63 zone the critical near-term floor.

Technical indicators underscore the strain. The 50-day moving average stands at €77.39, roughly 16% above the current price, while the 200-day average of €81.76 is even further out of reach. The relative strength index has fallen to 31.8, deep in oversold territory. That reading suggests the selling pressure may be exhausted, but it does not guarantee a reversal — especially with no fresh company-specific catalyst due until late July.

The next hard data point arrives on 31 July, when Hensoldt publishes its half-year report at its Taufkirchen headquarters. Until then, the calendar is sparse. A Commerzbank & ODDO Corporate Conference in Frankfurt on 2 September is the only major investor event scheduled. In the meantime, broader macro releases — such as Eurostat’s flash estimate for June inflation, due 1 July, following May’s 3.2% annual rate — could influence sentiment for the wider defence sector.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?

While the F126 setback dominates headlines, not all news is negative. Chief executive Oliver Dörre purchased 2,500 shares of his own company in late June, a vote of confidence that, for now, has failed to arrest the downtrend. More substantially, Hensoldt is advancing a high-profile radar deal for a Ukrainian missile defence system. The Kyiv-based company Fire Point is accelerating development of an anti-missile system called FREYJA, with Hensoldt supplying its high-performance radars. First interceptor units are expected to be ready before the end of the year. Closer to home, a new spare-parts logistics centre in Wolfhagen is scheduled to begin operations in early autumn, expanding infrastructure for the Bundeswehr.

Operationally, the first quarter told a strong story. Hensoldt booked a record order intake of €1.48 billion and had an order backlog of €9.8 billion. Management raised its free cash flow guidance at the start of June, targeting roughly 50% of operating profit. The company’s annual forecast remains unchanged.

The question now is whether the €63 level can hold. A successful defence of that support would be the first sign of stabilisation. A break below, however, leaves the stock without a clear technical floor until the next identifiable reference point. With no company news due this week, the fate of the shares hangs on sector momentum and buyer behaviour near the yearly trough. Hensoldt will have its own say on 31 July.