XPeng’s Record Second-Quarter Deliveries Overshadow a Daunting Gap to Its Annual Goal

XPeng shipped 40,126 vehicles in June, pushing its second-quarter total to 103,295 units — a record that sits comfortably within the automaker’s guidance of 100,000 to 106,000. Yet the celebration on the bourse was muted. The stock rose 4.98% to €12.22 on Wednesday, recovering from its 52-week low of €10.18 hit on June 26, but the shares remain nearly 50% below their November 2025 peak of €24.40. The real issue lies ahead: after delivering roughly 166,000 vehicles in the first half, XPeng still needs to sell about 384,000 units in the second half to hit the lower end of its full-year target of up to 600,000.

That means more than doubling its delivery run-rate — an ambition that hinges squarely on the success of the Mona L03, a new SUV set to debut in Beijing on July 2, 2026, with sales opening the same day. The vehicle will be offered in both pure battery and extended-range hybrid variants, the latter boasting a combined range of over 1,300 kilometers. Market watchers expect a starting price of roughly 150,000 renminbi, putting the L03 in direct competition with the BYD Atto 3. For XPeng, the model is also a strategic necessity: the Mona M03 limousine currently accounts for more than 40% of total sales, a dependency the company is eager to reduce.

The GX premium SUV has already proven its mettle. In June alone, 6,739 GX units were delivered, and the 10,000th vehicle rolled off the assembly line this month. But the GX is more than a sales driver — it serves as the technical foundation for XPeng’s robotaxi ambitions. The company recently unveiled what it calls China’s first production-ready, pre-assembled L4-standard robotaxi, built entirely on the GX platform. Pilot operations are scheduled to begin in the second half of this year, testing technology, customer acceptance, and the business model.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XPeng?

On the technology front, XPeng is pushing its autonomous driving roadmap. At the CVPR 2026 workshop on foundation models for embodied intelligence, Xianming Liu, head of the General Intelligence Center, presented the company’s new X-Mind framework. It builds on earlier systems — X-World, X-Foresight, and X-Cache — and allows vehicles to simulate future scenarios before making decisions. The announcement drove the stock 5.87% higher on the day it was made, underscoring how closely the market ties sentiment to AI advances.

Meanwhile, XPeng is accelerating its European push. The Mona L03 will arrive on the continent as early as July, launched at a major brand event in Munich. The company already sells vehicles in 28 European countries and has three models assembled from kits by Magna Steyr in Austria. Management aims to double overseas sales this year, though those volumes still represent a fraction of the total needed to close the gap on the annual target.

Despite the recent uptick, XPeng shares are down nearly 30% year to date and about 21% over 12 months. The 30-day annualized volatility stands at 47.48%, reflecting deep swings in sentiment. The relative strength index of 48.1 suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold after its bounce from the June low. To reach its 200-day moving average of €16.47, the shares would need to gain another 26% — a rally that will depend on how quickly the Mona L03 gains traction in China and Europe, and whether the robotaxi pilot can demonstrate tangible progress before year-end. With 384,000 deliveries required in the second half, there is little room for missteps.