After IBM’s Wake-Up Call, SAP Rallies on Cloud Hopes and a Cleaned-Up Regulatory Slate

The past week has been a study in extremes for SAP. A brutal 5.6% single-day rout on July 15 — triggered by IBM’s far‑worse‑than‑expected quarterly revenue of $17.2 billion against a consensus of $17.86 billion — shoved the stock within 4.14% of its 52‑week low of €130.80. Yet by Thursday, the shares had snapped back 3.27% to close at €140.84, rekindling the debate over whether the German software giant can decouple from the broader technology sell‑off.

The whipsawing comes at a pivotal moment. Since the start of the year, SAP has shed 30‑32% of its value (the exact figure depends on the trading day used), and on a twelve‑month view the loss stands at 46.38%. The 200‑day moving average of €176.82 sits a daunting 20.35% above the current price, underscoring that the intermediate trend remains firmly negative. Still, the relative‑strength index at 50.5 leaves ample room for additional gains before any overbought signal flashes.

The IBM shock rippled across the sector because investors interpreted the miss as a sign that corporate IT budgets may be tilting toward hardware infrastructure at the expense of software and cloud services. SAP, with its heavy exposure to enterprise subscriptions, was caught in the cross‑fire. Yet one day’s panic selling does not a trend make. The very next session saw buyers step in, and the stock now trades less than 3% below its 50‑day average of €144.89 — a technical resistance level that, if reclaimed, would bolster the case for a more durable bottom.

Behind the noise, SAP’s operating story has moved in a different direction. The European Commission has formally accepted the company’s commitments in the long‑running antitrust probe into on‑premise maintenance services, closing the case without a fine. SAP will waive reactivation fees for returning customers and ease third‑party support access — a settlement that removes a nagging regulatory cloud. On the cybersecurity front, the company used its July patch day to flag a critical NetWeaver AS ABAP vulnerability (CVE‑2026‑44747) with a near‑maximum CVSS score of 9.9, urging clients to deactivate certain ICF nodes or apply the fix immediately.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?

Strategically, SAP is doubling down on the data layer that powers its AI ambitions. The acquisition of Dremio, a data‑lakehouse platform provider, closed at the start of July, and the earlier‑announced purchase of Reltio Inc., a master‑data‑management specialist, is proceeding. Both deals serve the “Autonomous Enterprise” vision centered on the Joule AI assistant. The challenge, as multiple analysts have noted, is proving that these investments will translate into measurable revenue growth — and fast.

The share‑buyback program offers a mechanical floor. The first tranche, worth up to €2.6 billion as part of a €10 billion total programme, is scheduled to complete by July 27, providing a steady demand for shares even if fundamental headwinds persist. At €159.64 billion in market capitalisation, SAP’s valuation is far more defensive than it was a year ago, and UBS analyst Michael Briest reiterated his buy recommendation with a €205 target, citing expected margin improvement in the second quarter.

All eyes now turn to July 23, when SAP releases its second‑quarter and first‑half results at 22:05 MESZ, followed by an analyst conference at 23:00. The IBM episode has raised the stakes for every metric: cloud revenue growth, the trajectory of AI‑related monetisation, and the ability to maintain profitability while development costs for generative AI features climb. The broader European tech earnings season — including reports from peers facing similar sector‑rotation pressures — will likewise test whether the snapback is a bear‑market rally or the start of a genuine recovery. For now, the €130.80 low remains the line in the sand.