Allianz Defies Jefferies’ Stubborn €325 Target as Buyback Hits €1.5B and Bullish Calls Multiply

For more than six months, Allianz shares have traded well above Jefferies’ price target of €325 — a gap that analyst Philip Kett himself describes as unusually wide. Yet the stock continues to hover near a 52-week high of €425.50, reached on July 10, and closed Friday at €423.00, just 0.59% shy of that mark. The disconnect between market optimism and one of Wall Street’s more conservative voices has only widened as the insurer’s buyback program gains steam and a growing chorus of analysts lifts their sights.

Jefferies has held its “Hold” rating and €325 target since December 2024, even as Allianz surged 21% over the past twelve months. Kett reiterated the stance on July 14, the same day the stock hit its recent peak, citing the need for sustained margin improvement in the property-casualty business before he can turn more constructive. The persistence of that view stands in stark contrast to the bullish momentum building elsewhere.

The buyback program, launched in February with a €2.5 billion authorization, provides a tangible backstop. By early July, Allianz had repurchased roughly 3.95 million shares for about €1.5 billion, including one million shares bought in June alone. Such aggressive repurchases signal management’s confidence in the company’s valuation and typically support share demand. Meanwhile, asset manager Amundi trimmed its stake below the 3% reporting threshold in early June, though the move appears routine for a large fund house and carries no strategic implications.

Analysts at Metzler and Berenberg take a far more upbeat view. On July 17, Metzler raised its price target to €454 from €410, reaffirming a buy recommendation. Berenberg went further on July 16, reiterating a buy with a €684 target — the highest on the Street — and pointing to a potential windfall from Germany’s pension reform, which could boost demand for Allianz’s retirement products. Even the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung joined the bullish camp on July 17, adding the stock to its “Technical Depot” on the strength of a confirmed long-term uptrend and clear outperformance versus the sector index. The shares now trade about 12% above their 200-day moving average, a classic sign of relative strength.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Allianz?

That optimism rests on a solid first-quarter performance. On May 13, Allianz reported operating profit of €4.517 billion, up 6.6% from €4.236 billion a year earlier. Total business volume rose 3.5% to €53.0 billion, while the Solvency II capital ratio stood at a comfortable 221%. Shareholders approved a €17.10 dividend for fiscal 2025 at the annual meeting on May 7 — an 11% increase from the prior year’s €15.40.

Investors now look to August 7, when Allianz releases second-quarter and first-half results. With the stock near its record and 30-day volatility at 10.32%, the market will be watching closely to see whether operating momentum from Q1 persists — and whether the coming data will validate the sceptics at Jefferies or the optimists aiming for €454 and beyond.

On the strategic front, Allianz continues to expand in Asia and embrace technology. In April, it signed a binding agreement with Jio Financial Services to form a 50-50 joint venture covering property and health insurance in India. Japan operations were rebranded in early July under the global “One Brand Strategy,” with Allianz Worldwide Partners Japan becoming Allianz Partners Japan. And at its July 13 “Media Barbecue,” management outlined a broader AI deployment plan under the guiding principle of “Trust,” aiming to improve claims processing and customer service — though no specific cost savings or revenue targets were disclosed.