Almonty Shares Gain Momentum Amid Global Tungsten Supply Squeeze

A confluence of operational progress and favorable market dynamics is drawing increased investor attention to Almonty Industries Inc. The company’s flagship Sangdong tungsten mine has transitioned into active production, a milestone achieved just as a structural shortage is sending global tungsten prices soaring. With a wave of analyst upgrades and significant institutional buying, the market is now watching to see if the upcoming financial results can validate the burgeoning optimism.

Supply Chain Disruption Fuels Price Surge

The broader context for Almonty’s rising profile is a significant tightening in the global tungsten supply chain. Market dominance by China, estimated to control 75–80% of worldwide supply, has led to pronounced volatility. In late 2025, Chinese authorities substantially tightened export restrictions, with BMO Capital Markets noting that exports from the country temporarily ground to a complete halt.

This supply shock propelled tungsten prices upward by more than 160% in 2025, a trend that continued into the opening weeks of 2026. Almonty CEO Lewis Black has characterized the situation as a “real, legitimate” shortage. He further emphasized that pricing is behaving more independently from historical control mechanisms for the first time in decades, with customers currently accepting the higher costs. This environment enhances the strategic relevance of non-Chinese producers for Western industries such as defense, aerospace, and semiconductors.

Sangdong Mine Transitions to Active Operations

The company’s pivotal development is the official commencement of active mining at the Sangdong project in South Korea’s Gangwon province. The site, considered one of the world’s most significant and high-grade tungsten deposits with reserves of 7.9 million tonnes, has shipped its first ore. Processing plants are reportedly running to plan, marking the final phase before full commercial production. Capacity is scheduled to be ramped up progressively through to 2027.

Beyond tungsten, Almonty’s project pipeline includes a fully permitted molybdenum project at Sangdong, targeted for production by the end of 2026. A Phase-II expansion for Sangdong is also planned from 2027, aiming to boost annual capacity to as much as 1.2 million tonnes. Other developments include a planned capacity increase at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal and progress at the Gentung Browns Lake project in the USA, which could be ready in the second half of 2026.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Institutional Interest and Analyst Upgrades Intensify

On the investment front, institutional activity has surged. The number of funds holding positions in Almonty jumped by over 55% in the last quarter to 107. A particularly notable move came from Van Eck Associates, which increased its stake by 13,294.7% to 11.24 million shares, a position valued at approximately $99 million. Other significant institutional holdings include roughly $25.6 million from Encompass Capital Advisors and about $16.3 million from Next Century Growth Investors.

This buying interest has been reflected in the share price, which shows a gain of 70.86% over a 30-day period and a year-to-date return of 121.28%.

Equity researchers have concurrently issued a series of bullish revisions. Couloir Capital raised its fair value estimate by more than 150%, from C$7.69 to C$19.30, citing higher long-term tungsten price assumptions and the persistent supply-demand imbalance. DA Davidson lifted its price target to $18.00, while B. Riley Financial set a target of $17.00. Oppenheimer initiated coverage with a “Buy” rating and subsequently increased its target from $12 to $16 in February 2026.

Next Milestone: Quarterly Financial Report

The next critical test for the company arrives on March 19 with the release of its quarterly earnings. This report is anticipated to provide the first concrete financial data reflecting both the elevated tungsten price environment and the ongoing production ramp-up at Sangdong. Investors will be scrutinizing these figures to assess whether Almonty can substantiate the heightened market expectations that now surround it.