Barrick Mining’s $400 Million Gold Return Masks Rising Costs and a Stalled Pakistan Megaproject

A Malian judge has ordered the return of three tonnes of gold to Barrick Mining, ending a bitter dispute that saw military authorities seize the bullion in January. The precious metal, worth roughly $400 million, had been sitting in a bank in Bamako since it was removed from the Loulo-Gounkoto complex. Barrick must now arrange its physical transport back to company vaults.

The ruling caps two years of negotiations. Barrick will pay approximately $430 million to the military government to settle the row. In exchange, it regains control of its mine operations this coming week, imprisoned employees have been released, and international arbitration proceedings have been dropped.

Yet the legal victory in West Africa has done little to lift the stock. Barrick’s shares have slipped to around $40, having shed nearly six percent recently. A strengthening US dollar and rising bond yields are weighing on gold prices, which in turn dampens near-term cash flow expectations for major producers.

The market’s focus is shifting to the numbers that matter most. On May 11, management will report first-quarter results. The bar is set exceptionally high: last year, revenue climbed by more than 31 percent and profit nearly doubled. But the operating environment is turning tougher.

Costs are climbing relentlessly. All-in sustaining costs hit $1,637 per ounce in 2025, and Barrick now forecasts they could rise as high as $1,950 per ounce this year. Lower ore grades and more expensive materials are driving expenses higher, while production is set to fall. The company expects to produce no more than 3.25 million ounces in 2026.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick Mining?

A separate headache is Reko Diq, the massive copper-gold project in Pakistan. Barrick has slowed development there, citing security concerns in the region. The review is expected to last until mid-2027. That timeline puts the original budget of up to $6 billion for the first construction phase under serious pressure. Analysts at Raymond James now expect costs to come in significantly higher, pushing the targeted production start of late 2028 further into the distance.

On a brighter note, the company is pressing ahead with strategic moves. Barrick plans to list its North American operations, including Nevada Gold Mines, in an initial public offering by the end of 2026. A free float of 10 to 15 percent is envisioned. Goldman Sachs is reportedly advising on the deal, and a dedicated management team led by Chief Operating Officer Tim Cribb is already in place. The new entity could be valued at more than $60 billion.

Shareholders will vote on the capital strategy at the virtual annual general meeting on May 8. The board is proposing to distribute half of free cash flow as dividends going forward. Analysts remain broadly optimistic despite the operational hurdles. The average price target on the stock stands at roughly $54, though CIBC recently trimmed its target to $63 while keeping an “outperformer” rating.

Last year, Barrick generated a record $7.7 billion in operating cash flow, with more than $2 billion returned directly to shareholders. The question now is whether soaring gold prices can continue to offset rising costs and project delays. The May 11 earnings release will provide the next hard reality check. A weak outlook could accelerate the current consolidation phase in the stock.