Bayer’s Summer of Reckoning: Legal Decisions and a Potential Blockbuster Collide

Bayer’s stock is caught in a familiar squeeze: strong operational performance and promising drug data are consistently overshadowed by the legal albatross from the Monsanto acquisition. Yet the next few weeks could provide the clearest signal yet on whether the company can finally escape that shadow.

The tension is most visible on the charts. Bayer shares ended last week at €35.95, leaving them just 0.41% above their 200-day moving average — a technical lifeline that could snap with the slightest adverse news. A separate data point put the gap even narrower, at 0.22%, with a closing price of €35.88. Over the past 30 days, the stock has slid 6.67%, and since the start of the year it has lost 5.64%.

Strong fundamentals buried under litigation costs

The first quarter of 2026 showed that Bayer’s operating engine is firing well. Adjusted EBITDA rose 9% to €4.45 billion, while net profit more than doubled to €2.76 billion. Crop Science delivered solid sales of soybean and corn seed, and the pharmaceutical division got a boost from prostate cancer drug Nubeqa.

CEO Bill Anderson continues to push a leaner structure: less bureaucracy, flatter hierarchies, and lower costs. But the problem is cash. For the full year, Bayer still expects a free cash outflow of between €2.5 billion and €1.5 billion, largely because it has set aside €5 billion for legal expenses.

A new kidney drug could open a huge market

While legal risks dominate the headlines, the pharma pipeline is quietly building a case for a different narrative. At the ERA congress in Glasgow, Bayer presented the full results of the Phase III FIND-CKD trial for Kerendia in patients with non-diabetic chronic kidney disease. The drug significantly slowed disease progression and cut the risk of combined cardiovascular events compared with placebo.

Non-diabetic CKD accounts for the vast majority of the estimated 850 million chronic kidney disease patients worldwide, giving Kerendia a potential addressable market that could weigh against the litigation burden. Bayer now plans to file the data with the FDA to expand the drug’s label.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bayer?

A month of legal milestones

The court calendar is packed. By the end of June, the US Supreme Court is expected to rule in the “Durnell” case, which addresses whether federal law on pesticide warnings preempts state failure-to-warn claims. A favorable decision would not wipe out Bayer’s exposure entirely, but it would bring much-needed legal clarity — and the market is desperate for that.

Separately, June 4 marked the opt-out deadline for a proposed $7.25 billion class-action settlement. The final approval hearing is scheduled for July 9, 2026. A low opt-out rate would suggest Bayer is making real headway in clearing legacy claims; a high rate would keep pressure on the stock.

The broader macro environment adds another variable. The European Central Bank meets on June 11, and markets expect a 25-basis-point rate hike amid rising energy prices. For Bayer, that is background noise; the real action is in Washington.

Chart support and the next test

Technically, the stock is walking a tightrope. The €35.80 level is being watched as a critical support. If it breaks convincingly, analysts point to the multi-month low from June’s earlier sell-off as the next obvious target.

Bayer’s summer is shaping up as a series of high-stakes events — a Supreme Court ruling, a settlement hearing, and the commercial case for a potential blockbuster. If the legal signals turn positive, the stock may finally be judged on its own numbers rather than the legacy of a deal made years ago.