BMW Stock Hemorrhages 40% in 2026, Yet Deutsche Bank Keeps 90-Euro Target Alive

Just days before its half-year earnings are due, BMW finds itself grappling with yet another setback. The automaker has initiated a recall covering 29,119 vehicles, adding to a growing list of headaches that have driven shares to within a whisker of a new 52-week low. By Wednesday, the stock was changing hands at €57.34, down 0.31% for the session and a hair above the intraday low of €56.72 struck the previous day. That left the market capitalisation at €35.30 billion and the year-to-date loss at a staggering 40.22%, with the equity now trading 41.43% below its December 2025 peak of €97.90.

Despite the relentless slide, Deutsche Bank Research analyst Tim Rokossa remains an outlier bull. He reaffirmed his buy rating and €90 price target on July 14 — a level that implies a 57% upside from current prices. In his note, Rokossa acknowledged that second-quarter results, due on July 30, will be pressured by weak sales volumes and pricing power, but he views the deterioration as cyclical rather than structural. That conviction, however, is being sorely tested by the operational crosswinds battering the Munich-based group.

The recall — which BMW announced on the same day Rokossa published his recommendation — is the latest operational irritant. No details on the affected models or the specific defect were provided, but the action unambiguously adds to the sense of crisis enveloping the stock. It arrives alongside a sales picture that is increasingly bipolar: Europe and the United States are pulling their weight, while China is in freefall.

In the first half of 2026, BMW Group delivered roughly 1.15 million vehicles worldwide, a 4.2% decline from the prior year. European registrations climbed 5.4%, and US deliveries rose 3.9%, but those gains were swamped by a 20.4% plunge in Chinese sales over the six-month period. The second quarter alone saw a 30% collapse in the country that had been BMW’s biggest single market. The one bright spot came from battery-electric vehicles: deliveries of fully electric BMW and Mini models totalled 116,807 units between April and June, up 5.2% year-on-year, with Europe accounting for 81,445 of those.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BMW?

The technical picture offers little comfort. The stock is trading 15.5% below its 50-day moving average of €67.86 and almost 30% beneath the 200-day line of €81.71. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 28.9, deep in oversold territory, while the annualised 30-day volatility of 31.24% reflects acute investor anxiety. Over the past month, the shares have shed 16.32% in value; over the last week alone, the decline reached 3.08%.

Rokossa’s unflinching target of €90 — a level last seen in late 2024 — suggests he believes the current pain is temporary and that the company’s long-term earnings power remains intact. That view may find support in BMW’s product roadmap, which was also unveiled in recent days. The M division chief, Frank van Meel, confirmed that the upcoming electric M3 will keep the simple M3 badge — not a separate name like iM3 — when the series version arrives in 2027. The combustion-engine M3, codenamed G84, will follow a year later. BMW also plans to launch an M350 xDrive and an electric M Performance i3 by 2027, underscoring its commitment to offering both powertrain technologies in its high-performance lineup.

For shareholders, the chasm between the analyst target and the stock’s reality is widening by the session. The next key test comes on July 30, when the company releases its full half-year report. Until then, the combination of a recalled fleet, crumbling Chinese sales, and a chart that shows no sign of a floor is likely to keep the bears in control — even as one prominent analyst insists the name is a screaming buy.